Population may hit 390m by 2050
In the next 25 years, Pakistan's population may explode to 390 million, marking an increase of 62%, of which 256 million people will be in the market looking for jobs that is more than the existing total population, reveals an official report launched on Tuesday.
Even in the case of using contraceptive methods to control population, the inhabitants are projected to increase to over 383 million, or 59%, in 2050, according to the Population Projections report 2023-50, launched by Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal. The report was prepared in collaboration with the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA).
The report depicts the population trend under three different scenarios – the number of children, working-age people and elderly persons. The report has used the 2023 population census as the base when the population stood at 241.9 million.
Pakistan's total population under the "slow fertility decline scenario" is projected to reach 390 million by 2050, an increase of approximately 148 million people, according to the report. This shows a 62% rise over 27 years.
It added that the rapid growth reflects the underlying demographic momentum, driven by fertility patterns and population dynamics across provinces. By adding the internal net migration, the population of each province is projected to grow significantly, with varying levels of increase in both absolute numbers and in percentage terms.
Under the second "rapid fertility decline scenario", where it is assumed to decrease sharply by subtracting the birth rate by half from the 2050 target, the population is projected to reach 371.9 million by 2050. This represents an increase of 129.3 million, or 54%, over the base year.
The trend reflects a significant slowdown in the pace of growth compared to the projected population under the slow fertility decline scenario, with a relatively balanced increase in both male and female numbers, stated the report.
In the third scenario based on evidence-based contraceptive use across provinces and the ICT, Pakistan's population will swell from 241.9 million in 2023 to 383.2 million by 2050.
The report says the number of children aged below 18 years is projected to rise from 118 million to 139.7 million by 2050, up 18%. However, the working-age population (15-64 years) is expected to increase markedly from 135.2 million to 255.4 million, higher by 89%.
Although the report did not comment on the economic growth rate needed to create jobs for the majority of these 255 million people, Pakistan's current growth model and trend are not sufficient to absorb the workforce.
The country needs a sustainable economic growth of 6-8% to create jobs for people already in the market but the economy is growing at an average annual pace of around 3.5%. The government is also implementing fiscal and monetary consolidation policies under the IMF programme that do not allow growth above 5%.
The report noted that faster expansion of the working-age population relative to dependents indicates a favourable age-structural shift, creating potential for demographic dividend, contingent on adequate investments in education, health care and employment.
According to the report, the youth population aged 15-29 years is projected to increase from 63 million in the base year to 100 million by 2050, reflecting a substantial expansion of the young labour force. The elderly population (65+) will rise from 8.6 million to 22.6 million, signaling the need for investments in elderly care and social protection.
The planning minister said that successful completion of the 2024-50 population projections marks a significant milestone in Pakistan's demographic planning landscape. "This achievement is the result of a deeply collaborative and consultative effort, involving experts, institutions and partners committed to data-driven policymaking," he added.
The report stated that against the current 67% of population below the age of 30, by 2050 the absolute number is projected to increase to 212 million. But their relative share is expected to decline to 54% of the total population. This shift reflects a gradual ageing of population, driven by declining fertility and improving survival, and indicates transition from a predominantly youthful population towards a more mature age profile.
Addressing the launching ceremony, Ahsan Iqbal said that uncontrolled population growth has become a major challenge to sustainable development, economic progress and effective utilisation of resources.
He stressed that 82% of resource distribution under the NFC Award is linked to the population share; therefore, reforms are needed to encourage provinces to adopt responsible population management policies. He said that currently there is no effective incentive for provinces to reduce population growth, adding that provinces demonstrating improvement in population management should be rewarded with additional incentives.
Provincial breakdown
Punjab, already the most populous province, is expected to grow from 128 million in 2023 to 200 million in 2050, a 56% increase in slow decline mode. Sindh's population is expected to increase from 56 million to 91.2 million, showing a 64% increase. Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa population is expected to increase from 41 million to 68 million, a surge of 66%. Balochistan's population, from a relatively smaller base, is expected to increase from 14.7 million to 25 million, showing the highest percentage increase of 68%.
Notably, the ICT population is projected to grow at the fastest rate, with its residents almost tripling from 2.3 million in 2023 to 6.5 million by 2050. These projections highlight the urgent need for comprehensive planning to ensure adequate infrastructure, services and resources across both urban and rural areas in response to Pakistan's evolving demographic landscape, according to the report.