Food self-sufficiency - the elephant in the room

Pakistan's food security policy continues on its chaotic rollercoaster course. Two years ago, public procurement of wheat was abolished and minimum support prices were discontinued. These were good decisions – in principle! Unfortunately, they were implemented too quickly and without the complementary measures that would allow the private sector to smoothly take over market operations. As a result of this hasty and poorly implemented policy, the wheat market fluctuated wildly. Prices of wheat stood at around Rs2,200 per 40kg at the time of harvest causing much distress to farmers. Subsequently, they shot up to Rs4,000 per 40kg through the course of the marketing year, causing much distress to consumers.

In 2025, the Government backtracked and minimum support price for wheat was reintroduced. The new policy fixed a wheat buying price of Rs3,500 per 40kg; and the Government, in conjunction with the provinces, committed to purchase 6.2 million tons nationwide.

Rather curiously, the policy stated that it is the private sector that would be licensed to do the buying and storing on behalf of the Government and would be compensated for procurement services, storage services and financial costs. However, it is not clear who would select the licensed agents and if they can charge the Government whatever costs they incur, without any benchmarking or audit. The situation was made even more uncertain by the Sindh Government which stated that it would not rely on the private sector and instead buy directly from farmers - presumably only from those in Sindh. But it was not clear how this would be enforced without strong inter-provincial controls on the movement of wheat. Let us see how all this plays out in the coming months and what further U-turns are in the pipeline.

While the Government continues in this fog of confusion, many Pakistanis simply lack food. The 2026 Global Report on Food Crises by the FAO and its partner organisations identified Pakistan as having the eighth largest population facing high levels of acute food insecurity globally.

Moreover, major adverse developments at international and regional scale are threatening Pakistan's food system. These include turbulence in the international oil and fertiliser markets due to the Middle East conflict, growing uncertainty around the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) and rapid climate change.

Firstly, fertiliser. Agricultural productivity in Pakistan is critically dependent on chemical inputs, a significant portion of which is either imported directly or produced domestically using imported energy. Disruptions in global supply chains - whether due to conflict, trade restrictions or price volatility - translate quickly into reduced availability or higher costs for farmers. Recent developments in the Gulf region, particularly around key shipping routes, underscore how exposed these supply chains are.

Secondly, water. Pakistan's agriculture depends overwhelmingly on the Indus basin irrigation system. The reliability of the system has historically been underpinned by IWT - a rare example of sustained transboundary water cooperation. Unfortunately, India has placed the treaty in abeyance. While immediate disruptions may be limited, the longer-term implications are harder to ignore. Any changes in water flows, storage infrastructure or timing - whether driven by political developments or climate variability - could have far-reaching consequences for agricultural production.

Thirdly, climate change. Pakistan is one of the countries most affected by climate change and we have all seen the images of parched crops and of floods of biblical proportions. Adapting to higher temperatures and rainfall that is more erratic will require major changes in cropping techniques, cropping patterns and the spatial location of production.

Taken together, these dynamics point to a highly complex reality – Pakistan's food system is embedded in global supply chains, dependent on transboundary resource arrangements and vulnerable to climate change. Addressing these issues will require a fundamental change in the thinking about food systems. It will require Pakistani policymakers to understand that food security is not merely an issue of agricultural output, but one of strategic resilience encompassing global supply chains, natural resources and climate change.

Responding to these challenges will require actions at multiple levels. At the federal level, the Ministry of National Food Security and Research has to expand its policy toolkit beyond that of fixing production targets and setting prices. It must develop policies and strategies to improve input-use efficiency for fertiliser and water, especially at farm level; develop rainfed farming, especially in those areas that were previously arid but now have occasional rains; and above all strengthen the agricultural research and innovations system. It has also to deal with the issues and risks that cannot be managed at the provincial level such as trade disruptions, energy markets and international water arrangements.

Much also has to be done at provincial and district levels, particularly to address the situation of the poorest and most food insecure through well-designed schemes and programmes; to build capacity to respond to climatic and other emergencies; and to strengthen the capacity of households to absorb external shocks. Finally, the private sector also a role to play to drive the change towards a more inclusive and resilient food system.

Recognising that our current policies have major gaps is not an admission of failure; it is a necessary step towards building a system that is not only productive, but resilient as well.