Heightened stakes

The syndrome of uneasy peace in the Middle East is unravelling. The summary rejection of Iranian rejoinder by President Trump for ending the conflict perpetually has raised stakes, which could reignite hostilities. Tehran, however, says its demands – lifting of US naval blockade to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, removal of sanctions, and unfreezing of its foreign assets – are "rational" and "legitimate".

The news of disengagement soon sent the Brent crude climbing by $4.16 per barrel. Iran believes it must have full sovereignty over the water channel and this is where the riddle rests. The US is unwilling to accept Iran's supremacy on one of the world's most important navigational routes, as well as the Islamic republic's demand to retain its enriched uranium cache. Among other points of contention that threaten to cause a rupture are Iran's desire to include Lebanon in the peace mosaic while giving a shut-up call to Israel as well as its call upon the Gulf states to wind down US bases on their soil.

The good point, nonetheless, is that both the warring sides still want to give diplomacy a chance. Pakistan's extraordinary role in making the US and Iran see light at the end of the tunnel is valued by either side, providing the necessary breathing space for a plausible quid pro quo across the table. Now with Trump due in Beijing tomorrow, the ballgame is likely to be one of engagement wherein the focus will be on reaching a détente. China has already put its weight behind Iran by voicing opposition to continued US sanctions, and seconding the Islamic republic's doctrine of manning the Strait as an extension of its sovereignty.

Trump will, thus, have to be generous enough to recognise the emerging realities of a new world order, and try to balance out American interests as best as possible. It is a given that the Blue Stripes' power and prestige is on a downslide in the Middle East, as the Gulf allies of the superpower find little intent in aligning with it. All that is desired at this moment is to get back to the dialogue table for cobbling a win-win equation.