It's all about the oil, stupid

The phrase headlined here was used by Noam Chomsky in his article of July 8, 2008 published in Khaleej Times, later by the leaders and writers and recently by anchors like Mehdi Hassan. Chomsky opined that the 2003 invasion of Iraq was inspired by US desire to control its vast oil reserves, and establish a permanent military presence there. 'The Declaration of Principles' signed by President Bush and Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki prioritised US control over Iraq's resources and military bases, he wrote. President Trump, while referring to the US decision of not instituting long-term control over Iraqi oil, said: "If you get out, keep the oil. We should have kept the oil... So stupid. So stupid, these people …"

His electioneering slogan, "Drill, Baby, Drill", complements his vision to "Make America Great Again"; it also acted as a stimulus for his idea to boost fossil fuel production and reverse US climate policies aimed at reducing US carbon emissions, wrote Ozili Peterson in his article "Drill Baby Drill: Global Implications of US Fossil Fuel Energy Production and Consumption Revival". President Trump has disavowed 'Paris Climate Accord' again, termed the climate change "greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world, a scam", and characterised carbon footprint as "a hoax made up by people with evil intentions". It reveals that oil and gas constitute main implements of Trump's statecraft. The overthrow of President Maduro and taking indirect control of Venezuelan oil; the intent to take over Greenland; coercion of a few Latin American and African countries; his war on Iran; and his quest for controlling critical metals are the steps in same direction.

The war on Iran and the constrained shipping through Strait of Hormuz have introduced newer challenges. Though the energy prices that had risen exorbitantly are coming down on hopes of peace, if the war doesn't end the cost of living and human sustenance could enter into very dangerous dimensions. Temporary lifting of sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil sales is a measure to control energy price hike. China is affected the most in this situation and is also being blamed for hoarding oil. In the longer run, Trump would desire maximum oil and gas purchases from the US. For this purpose and for chips and critical magnets, Trump would try to build a workable relationship with China.

Our foreign policy is experiencing a new zenith of success and respect. A successful conclusion of Pakistan's mediation between the US and Iran is likely to bring enduring peace. However, there are multiple detractors like Israel, speculative oil and stock trading insiders, Israel-funded businesses and politicians and the US military industrial complex whose interest reside in continuation of this war.

Energy is the most essential catalyst for preservation and perpetuation of life. Much of the human activity is dependent upon energy. The human history is replete with wars fought over coal and steel, oil and gas, rubber plants, gem stones, diamonds, etc. The contestation still goes on in various shapes and dimensions. In all eventualities, President Trump, in order to protect petro dollar, will seek to further strengthen his alliance with major oil producing countries; expand US oil and mineral empire; keep Iran under pressure; compete with Russia; and expand dominance over sealines of communications. China, Russia, BRICS, SCO, CACI are likely to resort to hedging to safeguard their interest and detach oil trade for US dollar.

Given the heightening global contest, Pakistan needs to devise a national security strategy to safeguard its own interests, protect its people and resources, and be strong enough economically, militarily and politically to survive and thrive with honour. While maintaining its non-aligned approach, Pakistan should allay US apprehensions over CPEC to realise its dream of geoeconomics; attract FDI for establishing an oil city in Gwadar having a refinery; construct north-south, east-west oil and gas pipelines for improving its economy and reducing dependence on external financial help.