Analysts praise Islamabad's balancing act
All eyes are on Islamabad as Pakistan prepares to host the second round of talks between Iran and the United States. The fragile ceasefire between the two sides is due to expire, leaving almost no room for failure.
Both sides had signalled they would attend the much-anticipated negotiations, with US Vice President JD Vance and Iran's parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher-Ghalibaf expected to lead their delegations. Yet uncertainty hangs in the air as Iran has not yet formally confirmed its participation.
On Tuesday, Pakistan's Federal Minister for Information and Broadcasting Attaullah Tarar posted on X that a "formal response from the Iranian side about confirmation of delegation to attend Islamabad Peace Talks is still awaited".
US President Donald Trump is not hiding his impatience. He has warned that he "expects to be bombing" if there is no progress, and has made clear he will not extend the ceasefire unless a deal is reached.
At the same time, he has voiced optimism that an agreement remains possible, even as US operations continue against Iranian vessels.
The crisis erupted on February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes across Iran.
The attacks targeted leadership compounds in Tehran, nuclear facilities, ballistic missile sites and military installations, and killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei along with several senior officials.
Iran hit back with missile barrages and proxy actions, pushing the region to the brink of a full-scale war as it shut the Strait of Hormuz, sending global oil prices soaring.
Pakistan moved quickly to contain the danger. Drawing on decades of working relations with both Washington and Tehran, Islamabad opened back-channel talks.
In early April, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal General Syed Asim Munir helped broker a two-week ceasefire that took effect on April 8. The first round of direct negotiations, known as the Islamabad Talks, took place on April 11-12 at the Serena Hotel.
A large US team led by Vice President JD Vance faced an Iranian delegation headed by parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher-Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, with Pakistani officials mediating.
The sessions stretched over more than 21 hours. There was no final deal to end the war, but both sides agreed to continue dialogue. That "neither breakthrough nor breakdown" outcome kept the ceasefire alive until today.
Now the pressure is heavier than ever. A deal could steady oil markets and reduce fears of renewed clashes in the Strait of Hormuz. Failure could reignite fighting, spike energy prices and send economic pain far beyond the Middle East
What the experts see ahead
Three seasoned voicesformer ambassadors Asif Durrani and Ali Imran, and foreign-policy analyst Michael Kugelmanlay out the most likely paths and what they would mean for Pakistan and the world.
Durrani frames the standoff as a high-stakes confrontation between Iran on one side and Israel plus the United States on the other. Success, in his view, would halt further hostilities and open the door to resolving bigger issues through dialogue.
For Pakistan this would be a genuine win, built on what he calls Islamabad's "unique" position, strong relations and a degree of trust with both Tehran and Washington.
Ali Imran hopes for something more substantial, a broader agreement that keeps the process alive even if differences remain. "If the talks succeed," he says, "Pakistan will be seen as having played a key role in preventing a major conflict."
Kugelman stops short of optimism but sees a realistic opening.
Facilitating even a limited deal, a truce extension or quiet understandings on flashpoints like the Strait of Hormuz would portray Pakistan as a responsible, peace-oriented actor, potentially unlocking investment and deeper international engagement.
For the wider world, the payoff would be calmer energy markets and a lower risk of larger war. He cautions, however, that global attention often drifts once the immediate crisis fades, and a weak agreement might simply paper over deeper problems and postpone the next confrontation.
Best case if the talks collapse
Even failure is not total loss. Kugelman notes that Pakistan could still earn credit for making a sincere effort to de-escalate. In a contained flare-up, the world might gain clearer leverage for future rounds or accelerate moves toward alternative energy sources.\
Worst case if the talks collapse
This is where the warnings turn serious. Durrani says a breakdown would mean resumed attacks and wider regional escalation. Pakistan is already feeling the heat through rising oil prices; further trouble would deliver a sharp economic shock while destabilising the broader region.
The ripple effects go far beyond the immediate players: the entire Middle East is already strained, and global energy pricesalready climbing even in the United Stateswould rise higher still.
Imran is equally blunt. The nightmare scenario, he says, is Iran simply not showing up. "That would lead to a breakdown in engagement and a broader conflict," he warns, with destabilising effects across the Middle East and fresh inflationary pressure felt worldwide.
For Pakistan the reputational risk is real after investing so visibly in mediation, failure could dent its credibility as a negotiator. Kugelman agrees it might expose Islamabad to criticism for overestimating its influence, though he believes the country could still command respect simply for staying at the table.
Pakistan's diplomatic balancing act
All three experts praise Islamabad's approach so far. Durrani calls the positioning "unique." Imran describes it as "positive and constructive," rooted in Pakistan's long tradition of trying to reduce conflict in the Muslim world and the Middle East.
He cautions, however, that this second round will be tougher: a more assertive American posture meets a more cautious Iranian one.
Kugelman sees the mediation effort as part of Pakistan's wider push for strategic autonomy and a better global image. Whether or not today produces a breakthrough, simply hosting the talks at this level has already given Islamabad a reputational lift.