Lingering threat of polio

The recently concluded nationwide anti-polio campaign is being called a resounding success by those directly involved in the vaccination drive. The National Emergency Operations Center reports that over 44.7 million children under five received the vaccine, a figure just shy of the 45 million target, representing over 99% coverage.

A polio expert calls the result "an achievement", noting that previous campaigns routinely missed 800,000 to 1 million children, roughly three times as many as this year's 300,000. Assuming the figures are accurate, this is certainly good news, but casting it as a triumph may be a bit more complicated. While 300,000 children represent a tiny fraction of the target number, it is still a very high raw number. If only 1% of 1% of the 300,000 children who missed vaccination were to get polio, it would be 30 children - almost exactly the number of new cases detected in all of last year.

The unvaccinated children are thus not a marginal gap. In fact, it is why polio eradication efforts keep failing in the last mile. It is also notable that family travel, outright refusals and security constraints are still being blamed, despite all of these problems having workarounds. For example, the government could set up vaccination counters at bus-stops and airports, while continuing to use awareness campaigns to encourage people to seek out vaccinations, rather than waiting at home for vaccinators to come knocking.

A single missed child does not, in itself, represent success or failure, but in context, with many adults not fully vaccinated, the risk of an outbreak remains high. Eradication is a zero-sum game. A single missed child is a potential reservoir for the virus, especially as the high-transmission season approaches. The government and its international partners must view missed children not as a statistical improvement, but as a central, urgent challenge requiring tighter tracking, more effective community engagement, and resolute support for the brave health workers who risk their lives on the front lines.