Super El Nino

Wild weather caused by climate change is almost certain to affect agricultural output and potentially cause natural disasters this year, with the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) warning that the subcontinent may witness a subdued monsoon this summer as the warming El Nino weather phenomenon is expected to form later this year.

The PMD says El Niño conditions are expected to develop during the summer and could intensify into a "super El Nino" by August or September. The worry is that historically, El Nino has caused warming patterns in the Pacific Ocean that suppress monsoon rainfall across South Asia, bringing drier-than-usual conditions to our region. Top international climate scientists have also warned that difficult conditions will continue into 2027, as recovering from droughts and floods, even under the best of circumstances, takes months, not days.

For Pakistan, this would cause a brutal economic shock. Agriculture remains the backbone of our economy, contributing over 23% to GDP and employing 37% of the labour force. Yet, growth in the sector has been flat for many years, aside from a few aberrations in individual crop yields. The Economic Survey of Pakistan for 2024–25 recorded a meagre 0.56% agricultural growth, with major crops contracting by 13.5% due to climate change and other pressures. Cotton production, essential to the textile industry, plunged by over 30% last year, and a weak monsoon would rule out recovery. Low yields of food crops would also increase food insecurity and inflationary pressure on citizens.

Given the potential for harm, we hope the government has already begun planning measures to reduce the impact of the anomalous weather patterns, lest we see yet another period of human suffering and economic upheaval being worsened by the absence of preparation. In the long term, reports such as these should increase the impetus for building more small dams and other reservoirs to protect against both floods and droughts.