'Economy stronger despite ME risks'

State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Governor Jameel Ahmad has said that Pakistan's key macroeconomic indicators have improved faster than anticipated at the beginning of the fiscal year, according to a statement by the central bank on Saturday.

While noting that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has introduced new risks and increased uncertainty about the macroeconomic outlook, the governor said the economy is relatively better positioned compared with previous crisis episodes to manage these emerging challenges.

Ahmad was meeting with senior executives from leading global financial and investment institutions, including JP Morgan, Barclays, Citibank, Jefferies and Franklin Templeton, as well as major credit rating agencies such as Fitch, Moody's and S&P Global. These engagements took place on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)-World Bank Spring Meetings from April 13 to 18, 2026. Ahmad also conducted key bilateral meetings with the leadership of the IMF and the World Bank Group.

The governor informed participants about the significant progress Pakistan had made in stabilising its economy before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict. He emphasised that a prudent monetary and fiscal policy mix had helped bring down and stabilise inflation within the target range, while strengthening the country's fiscal and external buffers.

Ahmad stated that during the first nine months of the ongoing fiscal year, inflation averaged 5.7%, the external current account balance remained in surplus, and the SBP's foreign exchange reserves strengthened to $16.4 billion, mainly due to the SBP's purchases from the interbank foreign exchange market.

He highlighted that with continued SBP purchases and the realisation of official inflows, including under fresh bilateral arrangements, the SBP's foreign exchange reserves are expected to strengthen further to about $18 billion by June 2026.

The governor explained that the improved macroeconomic stability has supported a gradual, sustainable and broad-based recovery in economic growth. Real GDP registered a broad-based acceleration to 3.8% during the first half of FY26, compared with 1.8% recorded in the first half of the last fiscal year.

Ahmad emphasised that the prudent policy direction meant that Pakistan's initial conditions are significantly stronger today than during previous periods of external shocks, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict in early 2022.

He noted that these better initial conditions have put the economy in a stronger position as it now faces challenges stemming from recent developments in the Middle East, including the unprecedented surge in global energy prices and freight and insurance costs. However, he reaffirmed that the SBP and the government remain committed to preserving price stability and will not refrain from taking necessary measures to safeguard macroeconomic stability.

Ahmad noted that the SBP's monetary policy has been prudently cautious, with the real policy rate remaining significantly positive. Additionally, the government has posted primary fiscal surpluses. In the face of the ongoing conflict, it has implemented targeted subsidies and introduced demand-management austerity measures.

The governor also noted the staff-level agreement with the IMF for the third review of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the second review of the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), as well as credit ratings reaffirmation by a major agency, as independent recognition of the government's and SBP's continued commitment to macroeconomic stability and the reform agenda.

During his visit, Ahmad also engaged with the Pakistani diaspora and global stakeholders at the Remittances and Roshan Digital Account (RDA) roadshow. He highlighted the milestone achievement of RDA inflows surpassing $12.4 billion across more than 917,000 accounts. He also outlined recent enhancements to the RDA regulatory framework, including the inclusion of non-resident entities, which are aimed at further integrating Pakistan into global financial markets and attracting a broader range of foreign investment into the country.