Islamabad Talks 2.0

The Islamabad Talks 1.0, seemingly unavailing, actually redefined a lot of things.

What was happening behind stage was in fact more defining than what was happening at the stage. Saudi Arabia declaring the arrival of military support from Pakistan; Aramco finalising a $10 billion oil refinery in Gwadar while partnering with PSO, OGDCL, PPL & GHPL; and Pakistan sending its first export container to Uzbekistan via Iran, were all unprecedented shockers.

One should understand that all this did not happen per chance. Rather, this points to increasingly deepening strategic alliance between Pakistan, the Arabs and the Persians. Seems like these players were already measuring their moves for integrating in an emerging Global South environment, just waiting for the right time to play the right moves.

One should understand that in the lapse of the first round of these talks, Pakistan has become the security provider for Saudi Arabia; and this service will soon be sought by other Gulf states. Also, that Pakistan cannot solely provide this service without China's participation, with whom it shares technology, reconnaissance, intelligence and strategic allegiance. So, to complete the security architecture, the Peninsula will soon be getting rid of US fighter jets, defence mechanisms, satellite coverage and intelligence penetration, all in one go – replacing them with everything Pakistani and Chinese.

Moreover, having the Saudi refinery closer to finalisation was exactly the push needed for Gwadar and CPEC. With this move, not only will international shipping be refueling from Gwadar, Pakistani consumers will also be getting a 20 per cent cut in oil prices. Topping that, Pakistan's opening of the Pak-Iran-Uzbekistan route means the opening of the long-awaited markets of Central Asia to the world via Pakistan and Iran.

The Saudi oil to the refinery in Gwadar, probably via an undersea pipeline, will also permanently shatter the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor dream and smash the relevance of the I2U2.

One should remember that CPEC is not a lone project, rather, the BRI connects similar corridors via Afghanistan and Iran, and connecting them all internally was always the goal of BRI. This is a future we are looking forward to for the region.

So, were the Islamabad Talks about US-Iran peace, or were they about signaling to the US and Allies that the order of the world has changed. Already in this war, Spain and Italy have categorically disallowed the US the use of their bases in the Mediterranean. And now Britian, France, Germany, Spain, Italy and Greece have refused to join a US-led blockade of Iranian ports. They simply do not want to participate militarily in the Strait of Hormuz conflict.

Already President Pedro of Spain and Prime Minister Meloni of Italy have joined the South Africa suit in the ICC alleging Israel of genocide in Gaza. Already Chinese diplomacy is on turbo-charge, with Pedro in China for new economic and strategic ties. And then we have Taiwanese Opposition Leader Cheng Li-wun standing in China, expressing a desire for a "peaceful" resolution to the long-running dispute over the island's future, and saying, "We can't allow the Taiwan Strait to become a Strait of Hormuz."

The fear that the failure of Islamabad Talks would reignite a much fiercer war, with widespread destruction throughout the region, has dissipated with Trump's half-baked blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The US could not open the Strait despite all its bombing campaigns in straight 39 days; and now when it's clear that the US practically has no allies to stand behind it, the armadas at the mouth of Hormuz are like sitting ducks that will be targeted by Iranian missiles as soon as the ceasefire ends. How many more billions will be lost then, with the US wasting a billion dollar a day, each day of the war.

But even before the talks first started in Islamabad, Trump had received a light, perhaps from the Divine, when he posted on Truth Social: 'World's Most Powerful Reset', President DJT. He knew more than anyone else that the war had been lost, and with that the US prestige and influence.

Now, Trump has hinted that Islamabad Talks 2.0 may resume in a couple of days, after which he has also given the good news of 'permanently' opening the Strait because President Xi Jinping has agreed not to give weapons to Iran. The irony is that Hormuz was open for everyone; the US war on Iran caused its closure; then the US called all its friends to help open it and no one came; then the US boasted to close it for Iran; and now the US will re-open it because Trump is happy that China won't give Iran the weapons it was already saying it did not give.

So, what is Islamabad Talks 2.0 for? Maybe it will be as irrelevant as the US has become. Perhaps it is clear to major powers that if left alone, the US will not be able to row for a long time in the Gulf of Oman or the Arabian Sea. China and Russia may keep a promise of not providing weapons to Iran, but only if they aren't required anymore, and that the US has left the Arabian Ocean to its natural hires.

What was initiated by the King and his valiant stooges as 'regime change' exercise and a 'God's plan' has ended up in hastening the downfall of an already crumbling empire. If the US was thinking that boost and pomp and vainglory were the magic beans that make an empire, it was wrong; they only rot the roots of whatever is standing.

Or, does the idea of Islamabad Talks 2.0 remind us of the Yalta Conference where the Big Three – Churchill, Stalin and Roosevelt – met to decide who gets what from the spoils of war. And in all this, does Israel, who started with the greedy idea of 'Greater Israel', want to run away with at least South Lebanon? Or will Iran draw a red line on that too?

But then, there is always the possibility that the King will receive another 'commandment', and decide to go on with a ground operation after all! Though it would be extremely unlikely, counter-productive and counter-intuitive; in fact, a suicide mission for the tens of thousands of troops being deployed – but you never know! Your know not, how many ritualistic sacrifices are to be made for the Kingdom of Zion to be established. You don't know the esoteric levels.