Untimely rains cloud wheat harvest outlook

Farmers under strain as relentless rains risk crop damage

ISLAMABAD/LAHORE:

The country's economy, already walking a tightrope, faces a grim scenario as the government may miss the wheat production target this year, mainly due to extended spells of rain, particularly in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Rains before and after the sowing season had raised hopes for a strong wheat harvest this year. However, farmers are now increasingly concerned that repeated spells of rain during the harvesting period could damage crops and reduce overall yields.

The new wheat crop harvest usually begins in early March, with early arrivals taking place by the end of February as growers prepare for cotton sowing.

Pakistan's Meteorological Department (PMD) on Saturday forecast another spell of stormy weather set to sweep across the country from April 05-09, brought on by a fresh western disturbance approaching from the west.

The system, continuing over the past many days, has produced heavy rains in many parts of the country, accompanied by hailstorms and severe windstorms, damaging wheat crops in the plains of Punjab, as well as fruit crops in hilly areas.

Experts say rain is very beneficial for the wheat crop in its early stages, but during the harvesting season, it may damage the crop.

Not only does it hinder the harvesting and threshing process, but it also decreases the quality of the wheat grain, they added.

Farmers are worried that the rains might ruin their eight months of hard work and undermine the recovery of their crop-growing expenses, as wheat production is likely to decrease.

The wet crop cannot be processed by the threshing machine and needs to be dried, for which farmers have to wait, the experts opined. "A minimum of one day is required to dry the crop if it is sunny. Otherwise, it may take even more."

In case the harvested crop gets wet repeatedly, the quality of the grain and chaff decreases as the natural moisture level is affected.

Sometimes, the grain also becomes blackish if subjected to prolonged rain, they added.

Soon after harvesting, bundles of the crop lie in the fields under the open sky for threshing, and providing shelter to the harvested crop is not possible for every farmer. This poses another dilemma for farmers, who now seem to be in a hurry to complete the harvesting and threshing process.

The federal government has set a wheat production target of around 30 million tonnes for the Rabi season 2025-26, banking on adequate water availability in Punjab and Sindh, the two main wheat-producing provinces.

The wheat production target for the Rabi season 2024-25 was set at 27.92 million tonnes, but the government exceeded it by achieving 28.42 million tonnes.

The target for 2025-26 was approved at a meeting of the Federal Committee on Agriculture (FCA) held in October last year, which also finalised the wheat policy to ensure farmers receive fair support prices, enabling them to cover production costs and earn reasonable profit margins.

Besides, the rains have left dozens of people dead and caused damage to houses and infrastructure across all four provinces.

After the availability of estimates, the Ministry for National Food Security would be in a position to explain the extent of wheat crop loss, if any, officials said.

On the other hand, the PMD has been trying to improve the forecasting system to alert the farming community about weather conditions. However, regarding wheat crop losses, a PMD official pointed out that it was up to the agriculture department to advise farmers accordingly so that they could take measures to protect their crops.

Temperatures dropped significantly in the plains of Sindh and Punjab, making the weather pleasantly cold at night. Reports from different districts in southern, central and north-eastern Punjab indicated heavy to moderate rain, which further damaged the standing wheat crop.