Pipeline alternatives, including routes via Türkiye, gain relevance amid Strait of Hormuz concerns

The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz following US and Israeli attacks on Iran, along with disruptions to global energy supply, is bringing Türkiye to the forefront through various pipeline and route alternatives in the search for substitute transit corridors.

Because of the war in the Middle East, maritime traffic and oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz have been severely disrupted. Although the waterway has not been officially declared closed, Iranian authorities have imposed strict controls and restrictions on crossings.

While only vessels from certain countries are allowed to pass, others can transit only under specific conditions. This has caused maritime traffic in the region to deviate significantly from normal operations.

15M barrels of crude oil transported through Hormuz at risk.

Rising tensions in the region have caused disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which handles around 20% of global oil trade. Tanker traffic has slowed sharply, with crossings dropping to zero on some days and overall traffic declining by more than 90%.

Read: Iran shoots down second US fighter jet, one pilot rescued, media say

The daily transport of 15 million barrels of crude oil through Hormuz is now at risk, while rising insurance costs and security concerns are putting additional pressure on shipments.

The developments pushed oil prices from around $70 to $120, marking an increase of nearly 70%. On the natural gas side, the rise has been even sharper. Europe’s benchmark TTF gas contracts climbed from around €30 ($34.56) to the €60 - €70 range.

Although the decision by member countries of the International Energy Agency (IEA) to release 400 million barrels from emergency oil reserves signalled additional supply to the market, volatility continues amid concerns that the war in the region could intensify.

On the natural gas side, measures such as increasing storage use, accelerating spot LNG supply, and managing demand have been introduced, but prices remain elevated due to continuing supply risks.

Alternative routes exist, capacities limited

As concerns about supply security grow and existing measures prove insufficient to limit market volatility, the search for alternative routes that could reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz has also gained momentum.

Read More: UNSC divided over US-Israeli war on Iran

IEA data shows around 20 million barrels of oil per day passed through the Strait of Hormuz in 2025.

Alternative pipeline capacities bypassing Hormuz through Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates remain limited to between 3.5 million and 5.5 million barrels per day.

The UAE exports around 1.1 million barrels daily via the Abu Dhabi-Fujairah pipeline, with an additional spare capacity of approximately 700,000 barrels.

In Saudi Arabia, the East-West crude oil pipeline has a design capacity of 5 million barrels per day. After the current usage of about 2 million barrels, additional available capacity is estimated between 3 million and 5 million barrels per day.

The Abqaiq-Yanbu pipeline, running parallel to the East-West crude oil pipeline and transporting natural gas liquids, is currently operating at full capacity with around 300,000 barrels per day.

- Pipeline proposal from Qatar, Iraq to Türkiye

Turkish Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar referred to the status of the Iraq-Türkiye Crude Oil Pipeline extending from Kirkuk to Ceyhan. “This line has a capacity of 1.5 million barrels. We can transport 1.5 million barrels per day through this route,” he told Anadolu.

Bayraktar stated that Türkiye has brought other projects onto the agenda beyond Iraq.

“The arrival of Qatari gas to Türkiye through a pipeline, and perhaps onward to Europe through Türkiye. Imagine your LNG facilities are hit, your LNG exports stop. You already cannot move through Hormuz. Consider a pipeline carrying a certain volume of gas to Türkiye and Europe. This could become an important project,” he said.

Transporting oil resources to the Turkish city of Hatay through pipelines as an alternative to shipments through Hormuz, meanwhile, is also among long-term options under discussion.

Türkiye stands out as an energy corridor

Although partial alternatives exist for oil, LNG appears more fragile.

Hormuz remains a critical transit point for LNG shipments, and experts believe redirecting gas to alternative routes in the short term will not be easy.

In this picture, Türkiye stands out as a complementary energy corridor for transporting non-Hormuz resources to Europe. Exports through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan Oil Pipeline, which resumed on March 17, are planned to rise initially to 170,000 barrels per day and later to 250,000, strengthening Türkiye’s role in bringing northern crude to the Mediterranean.

Türkiye also remains an important route for Russian gas deliveries to Europe. Shipments through TurkStream rose 22% year-on-year in March, reaching 55 million cubic meters per day.

The developments suggest that Türkiye could become a more visible actor in energy trade at a time when the Hormuz shock is accelerating the search for alternative routes.

Türkiye may offer an alternative in the medium term

Also Read: White House seeks $1.5tr defence budget

Claudia Kemfert, head of the Energy, Transport and Environment Department at the German Institute for Economic Research, told Anadolu that a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz would increase global oil and LNG prices.

Continued supply risks in the medium term would likely keep prices elevated, deepen reliance on strategic reserves and reinforce concerns over energy security, she said.

Kemfert stated that pipelines through alternative routes, particularly via Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have limited export capacity, and their capacity is insufficient to compensate for a major disruption, leaving global markets structurally vulnerable.

She noted that Türkiye could provide an alternative in the medium term by strengthening its transit corridor role linking the Caspian region, the Middle East and Europe.

Kemfert said existing infrastructure limitations prevent Türkiye from offsetting major supply disruptions in the short term, meaning its role as an alternative corridor would remain largely strategic and medium-term.

She added that instability in the Strait of Hormuz would quickly reduce dependence on Gulf energy, with key beneficiaries likely to include the expansion of renewable energy, LNG suppliers, particularly the US, pipeline gas from regions such as Norway and North Africa, and emerging new transport corridors.