War's hidden victim - the environment

As fires raged through Iranian oil depots following recent airstrikes, towering columns of black smoke rose above Tehran. Residents reported what they called "black rain", soot and pollutants falling back over the city after burning fuel installations blanketed the sky. Beyond the geopolitical tragedy, the conflict is unleashing another crisis: environmental devastation.

When wars erupt, attention naturally focuses on casualties, military strategy and geopolitical consequences. Yet in most wars another victim barely makes the headlines: the environment. The ongoing confrontation involving the United States, Israel, Iran and GCC member countries is a reminder that modern warfare leaves ecological scars that may persist long after the conflict itself ends.

Recent strikes on Iranian oil depots and energy infrastructure have produced dramatic scenes across Tehran. Reports suggest that more than thirty oil-related facilities were targeted nationwide, marking one of the most extensive attacks on energy infrastructure since the conflict began. With several fires burning for days, the environmental consequences are already accumulating.

Oil and refinery fires release a dangerous mixture of pollutants, including sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide and microscopic particles known as black carbon. These particles can penetrate deep into the lungs and aggravate respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. The health risks are particularly acute for vulnerable groups such as children, the elderly and those with pre-existing medical conditions.

Tehran's geography makes the situation even more worrying. The city lies in a semi-enclosed basin beneath the Alborz Mountains, where temperature inversions frequently trap pollutants close to the ground. Even under normal conditions Tehran struggles with severe air pollution. Average particulate levels often exceed World Health Organization safety guidelines several times over. When massive oil fires occur in such an environment, smoke can linger for days, exposing millions of residents to hazardous air.

The environmental damage may extend beyond the air people breathe. There are growing concerns that burning fuel and spilled oil from damaged storage facilities have entered Tehran's storm-drain network. Once pollutants enter drainage systems, they can flow into nearby waterways, agricultural land and potentially shallow groundwater supplies. These effects may not be immediately visible, but they can create environmental risks that last for years.

The fallout from such fires rarely remains confined to the immediate area. Smoke plumes from major oil fires can travel hundreds or even thousands of kilometres, carrying soot and toxic particles across borders. Black carbon released during these fires absorbs sunlight and contributes to atmospheric warming. If deposited on snowfields or glaciers, it can accelerate melting, a phenomenon observed during the burning of Kuwait's oil wells during the 1991 Gulf War. In an era of tightening global carbon budgets, warfare represents one of the most destructive and least discussed sources of emissions.

Another overlooked danger involves water infrastructure. Across much of the Middle East, desalination plants supply a large share of drinking water. Military strikes that damage energy systems powering these facilities or the plants themselves, could quickly trigger water shortages in already water-stressed regions. Desalination plants are complex and energy-intensive systems, and disruptions can rapidly escalate into humanitarian crises. Chemical leaks or discharges from damaged facilities could also threaten fragile marine ecosystems in the Persian Gulf.

The Gulf itself remains an environmental flashpoint. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply passes, lies at the centre of this conflict. Escalation involving oil tankers, offshore platforms or pipelines could trigger major oil spills, threatening marine biodiversity and coastal economies throughout the region.

War also weakens environmental governance. Monitoring systems collapse, regulatory oversight diminishes and damaged infrastructure releases pollutants that might otherwise be contained. Urban bombardment disperses toxic dust from concrete, metals and industrial materials, while damaged sewage and waste systems contaminate water supplies.

For countries like Pakistan, these developments carry an important lesson. Pakistan already ranks among the world's most climate-vulnerable states. Environmental instability in distant regions can transit through global energy markets and economic systems. Rising oil prices triggered by Middle Eastern conflict, for instance, directly affect Pakistan's energy security and economic stability.

More broadly, the crisis highlights the growing intersection between climate security and geopolitics. Increasingly, analysts argue that alongside geopolitics and geo-economics we must begin to think in terms of "Geo-Environment", recognising that environmental stability and planetary health have become fundamental components of global security.

The environment rarely dominates wartime headlines, yet it remains one of conflict's most enduring casualties. Long after military objectives fade from the news cycle, the ecological consequences of war can persist for decades. Recognising this hidden cost should encourage policymakers to consider environmental protection as part of conflict prevention and diplomacy. Without such foresight, the true price of war will continue to be paid not only by people, but by the planet itself.