Epic blunder

After a fortnight since the American-Israeli aggression against Iran started, their Operation Epic Fury is turning more into an epic blunder. Instead of the anticipated quick victory, Iran has refused to capitulate. Despite the decapitation of its top leadership and unprecedented devastation, Iran has retaliated by resorting to asymmetrical warfare and horizontal escalation, targeting American and Israeli assets as well as American regional allies apart from blocking the Strait of Hurmuz, thereby choking the world's vital oil supply route with global economic implications. This has induced confusion in American strategy — whether to escalate or find a face-saving exit from the war.

Since the start there has been no clarity in the Trump Administration's objectives. These have ranged from the unrealistic to the ridiculous. Initially, regime change was touted as a goal based on totally incorrect assumptions that once Supreme Leader Khamenei and his senior colleagues were assassinated, the Iranian regime would collapse. In reality, the multi-intuitional regime is too deeply entrenched for that to happen and has demonstrated its capacity for survival by not only appointing Khamenei's son as his successor but also by effectively fighting back.

The claim about destroying Iran's nuclear capability is also untenable since Trump himself claimed having "obliterated" it in strikes last June. Besides, in negotiations that the US itself terminated by attacking Iran on 28 February, the Iranians had reportedly agreed to downblend their enriched uranium and accept additional monitoring. But the most outrageous assertion is about pre-empting an Iranian attack on the US since Iran clearly lacks this capability.

Now this confusion is compounded by contradictory options being put across by the US such as: ending the war soon; putting boots on the ground in Iran; inciting an uprising by Iranian Kurds; demanding unconditional surrender; choosing the next Iranian leader or asking Western and Arab allies to join the war. Such contradictions only indicate that President Trump has no idea what would constitute "victory" nor is there an end-game or exit strategy.

The real reason for such American vacillation is that Trump is being manipulated by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu who is actually calling the shots in Washington. This is the measure of the historical Israeli leverage over American leaders. So, even if Trump is willing to end the war, Netanyahu's agenda is to totally destroy Iran. As an Op-Ed in The New York Times of 14 March put it more palatably: "Mr. Trump wants to bend Iran. Mr. Netanyahu wants to break it."

At the heart of Netanyahu's campaign against Iran is his pursuit of the Zionist agenda for a "Greater Israel", stretching from North Africa to the Persian Gulf, which he has pursued since coming to power in 2002. Backed by American presidents since George W Bush, he has overturned the two-state solution to the Palestine issue, encouraged settler-colonialism in Palestine and unleashed genocide in Gaza, while prevailing on the Americans to destroy Iraq, Libya, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. Now, it is Iran's turn.

But Iran is different. It is not only a vast country of 90 million people with well-entrenched institutions and leaders, but also a proud civilisation with a history of struggle and sacrifice such as in the decade-long war with Iraq backed by the US. Now Iranians know they are fighting for their survival. Consequently, their refusal to surrender. Instead they have devised a calculated strategy of low-cost and low-tech asymmetrical warfare with horizontal escalation in order to transform the stakes of the conflict by widening its scope and extending its duration. They have used missiles and drones to systematically attack American radars, early warning systems and surveillance infrastructure as well as military bases and economic assets in the region. They have also successfully penetrated Israel's highly-rated Iron Dome and David's Sling missile defences to cause extensive damage. Moreover, using its strategic location, Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz and attacked ships in the Gulf, thereby sending shockwaves across the world by raising oil prices with cascading effects on the global economy.

Even though Iran has also suffered widespread devastation, it has less to lose as compared to the US. American sources acknowledge that the first 12 days of the war have cost over 11 billion dollars at nearly 2 billion per day and rising. Accordingly, Trump has asked Congress for an additional 600 billion dollars for the Pentagon. Meanwhile, the narrow Strait of Hurmuz cannot be easily re-opened by the US Navy since it would be vulnerable to attacks by small Iranian speed boats. The only solution would be to occupy adjacent Iranian coastal areas which would require an American land invasion.

Consequently, petrol prices are increasing for American consumers, making the war even more unpopular, lowering Trump's approval rating even further and threatening to undermine his supporters in the upcoming mid-term elections. Moreover, American economic interests as well as those of their Western and Gulf allies are suffering especially since the GCC countries are no longer a safe haven for foreign investments. These are all the hallmarks of another American quagmire.

The Arab states, especially in the Gulf, are paying a heavy price for their alliance with the US which neither protected them from Iranian strikes nor heeded their advice against using their territories to attack Iran. They ought to now recognise that an expansionist Israel rather than Iran poses the real threat to their security.

Apart from the economic impact of the war, the challenge for Pakistan is to balance its relations with Iran, for which there is massive public support, with its ties to the Arab countries, especially its defence partner, Saudi Arabia. Pakistan also needs to sustain the positive trajectory in relations with the US. Accordingly, Pakistan must persist with its advocacy of international principles, cessation of hostilities, respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states and pursuit of Islamic unity to counter the threat of Israeli aggression.