China targets 'quality growth' with 'realistic' GDP goal

China on Thursday unveiled key development targets for the 2026–2030 period as a government work report was submitted to the country’s top legislature, the National People’s Congress, for deliberation.

According to the report, China aims to maintain GDP growth within an appropriate range over the next five years, with annual targets to be determined in line with prevailing economic conditions.

The strategy is intended to support the country’s goal of doubling its 2020 per capita GDP by 2035 and achieving the level of a moderately developed nation.

To promote innovation-driven and green development, the report proposes an annual average increase of at least seven per cent in nationwide research and development spending, along with a 17 per cent reduction in carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP between 2026 and 2030.

China also aims to raise the value added of core digital economy industries to 12.5 per cent of GDP and increase national life expectancy to 80 years. To ensure effective implementation of the 15th Five-Year Plan, the government has proposed 109 major projects across six key areas, including the development of new productive forces and initiatives aimed at improving public well-being.

Read More: China sets economic course as 'Two Sessions' set to open in Beijing

For 2026, the targeted 4.5 and 5 per cent growth target is slightly below the previous goal of “around five per cent.” Some analysts say the adjustment reflects the country’s economic slowdown, partly linked to the prolonged crisis in the property sector, which once accounted for between 25 and 30 per cent of GDP.

Shen Danyang, head of the group responsible for drafting the government work report, described the target as both “proactive and pragmatic,” saying it reflects a comprehensive assessment of domestic conditions and changes in the external environment.

He said the target range allows room for structural adjustments, risk prevention and reforms while remaining aligned with China’s long-term 2035 development vision. It also provides flexibility to address global uncertainties and enables local governments to tailor regional growth strategies.

Officials also indicated that China would strengthen macroeconomic policy support this year as global uncertainties intensify and domestic demand remains relatively weak.

At a press conference, drafting group member Chen Changsheng said the country still has room for additional policy measures, noting that China’s government debt ratio remains relatively low compared with other major economies. He added that there is also scope for adjustments in reserve requirement ratios and interest rates if needed.

Also Read: China's impact on the global economy

“The growth target is quite realistic,” said Tianchen Xu, China economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. He said the target reflects a broader shift from a “number-first” approach toward prioritising quality growth.

“Beijing does not necessarily see high growth rates as beneficial if they encourage local officials to pursue wasteful projects or manipulate data,” he said while speaking to Reuters.

Expanding domestic demand has been identified as a priority for the second consecutive year, with the government planning measures to boost consumption by raising household incomes, improving healthcare, elderly care and childcare services, and supporting consumer goods trade-in programmes.

The report emphasises the development of emerging and future industries. In 2026, China plans to strengthen sectors such as integrated circuits, aviation and aerospace, biomedicine and the low-altitude economy.

In addition, the country aims to accelerate growth in strategic industries including next-generation information technology, new energy, advanced materials, intelligent connected electric vehicles, robotics and high-end equipment manufacturing.

Read More: Pakistan, China agree to align development plans, launch CPEC 2.0

Future-oriented technologies such as quantum technology, hydrogen energy, nuclear fusion, brain-computer interfaces, embodied artificial intelligence and 6G mobile communications are also identified as potential drivers of long-term economic growth.

The government said it would pursue breakthroughs in core technologies and accelerate efforts toward greater self-reliance in science and technology, including major advances in integrated circuits, machine tools, advanced materials and bio-manufacturing.

China also plans to establish three international centres for scientific and technological innovation to serve as world-class engines of innovation.