Clarity in times of war

War is here. What are our options? Let's do a deep dive.

1. We are faced with a three-border problem. The conflict with Afghanistan is escalating, US/Israel attack on Iran is widening, and India continues to glower from across the eastern border. This is the most serious poly-crisis we have faced in a very long time. Navigating it successfully would require supreme clarity about exercising tough options and absorbing external shocks.

2. The first direct shock of the war on Iran is likely the disruption of oil supply. Iran has responded ferociously to the unprovoked US/Israeli aggression and US targets in the Gulf have already been targeted by Iranian missiles. As the conflict escalates, as it surely will, the likelihood of Iran blocking the Straits of Hormuz and disrupting oil shipping lanes rises dramatically. If oil prices skyrocket, Pakistan's import bill will get a massive hit. The delicate macro-economic stability that we have achieved after painstaking effort is at a serious risk of damage. The shockwaves will travel through our economic system and can upset all calculations. Pakistan can ill-afford such disruption. But we may have no choice. The IMF mission is already in Pakistan for its review, and the next federal budget is three months away. All plans may be up for change.

3. If the Gulf region gets further destabilised, there is a danger that our remittances from the region – which constitute a huge chunk of our global remittances – could get impacted. Since our economy is so heavily dependent on these remittances, this additional danger could spell serious trouble for the economy.

4. President Donald Trump has made it crystal clear that the aim of his attack on Iran is regime change. For the Iranian regime, this has turned into an existential conflict. These dangerous dynamics have injected so much uncertainty into the situation that every possible outcome of the war has adverse consequences for Pakistan. More specifically, terrorists in Balochistan could take advantage of the chaos. However, there is not much we can do to stop US/Israeli aggression except step up our diplomatic game with other Islamic nations. But there's a complication: many such nations are now being dragged into the conflict – UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan – and it becomes very difficult to figure out who could exert a mediating influence on the aggressors.

5. While we may not have much sway over the events in the Gulf, we have total control over the other war on our border. By first not doing anything worthwhile to rein in TTP and other terror outfits from launching attacks on Pakistani homeland, and then initiating a full-scale attack against Pakistan, the Taliban regime has handed us an opportunity to take the war to them and finish the job once and for all.

6. This will require absolute clarity about what will define success for us in the conflict. That is not hard to guess: a total destruction of the terrorist infrastructure on Afghan soil and the degradation of terror outfits to an extent where they cease to pose any significant threat to Pakistan. But there's more. If this outcome cannot be achieved in the presence of facilitation of these terror outfits by the Taliban regime, and TTA's growing role as a proxy for India, then that leaves no option but to aim for a regime change in Kabul. How this will happen is a separate matter. What is critical at this stage is the clarity among Pakistani decision-makers that this is the only desired outcome that can save our homeland from terrorist attacks.

7. Is Pakistan ready to achieve these strategic objectives at all costs? In the past we have seen Pakistan taking action of a limited nature against terror camps in Afghanistan. Destroying a few such camps, or obliterating a handful of Taliban border check posts is clearly not the deterrent that it was intended to be. Now that the Taliban have themselves declared "war" on Pakistan, they have handed Pakistan the right to launch "offensive defense" actions that include hitting targets deep inside Afghanistan. Pakistan should not worry about escalation. It should in fact escalate at will to achieve the desired outcome. It would be a waste of opportunity if at the end of this conflict the Taliban retain the capacity to keep patronising terror outfits and keep acting as proxies for India.

8. There are two wars taking place on our borders. Only one is directly ours. Our priorities should be clear. We need to finish the job in Afghanistan swiftly and comprehensively so we can then focus on the threats and challenges emanating from the Gulf conflict. In fact, with the world's attention focused on the Gulf, Pakistan has a good opportunity to do whatever it takes to eradicate the threat from Afghanistan. We don't need mediation at this point. We need results from our kinetic action.

9. Pakistan's position on conflict with Afghanistan should therefore be clear: no talks, no mediation, no diplomacy. Time for these is over. Now we defend ourselves with everything at our disposal. It is good to hear that Pakistan is not giving a deadline for its kinetic option. That's the way to go.

10. Domestically it is a challenge to ensure that political fault lines do not dilute the national resolve needed at this time to face the mounting challenges from across three borders. The government needs to go the extra mile to the take the opposition on board, and do so without preconditions. The expected meeting between the prime minister and the leader of the opposition this coming week is a step in the right direction.