Economy may stay weak for 6 months

A majority of Pakistanis do not have hopes for an improvement in economic conditions over the next six months and 84% of respondents are less confident about making investments, reveals a new wave of Ipsos survey.

The findings of the latest survey reflect the views expressed by multinational companies working in Pakistan during a meeting with the International Monetary Fund, where they sought predictability and consistency in economic policies for doing business.

Only one in four Pakistanis believes the economy is strong and that opinion too is concentrated mostly in Punjab and among 30-year-old youth, shows the survey.

About 23% of respondents believe the economy is strong while 60% say it is weak, reflecting the ground realities where poverty is on the rise and only a few people are benefiting from the economy.

Ipsos said that although only one out of four Pakistanis termed the economy strong, the situation was far better than in early 2024, when hardly 4% saw the economy getting stronger due to prevailing heightened political and economic uncertainties.

People's sentiment remains low pertaining to expectations of economic improvement and about making any investments. Only one in three saw some hope for improvement while hardly 16% showed optimism about making investment, showed the survey completed in February.

Likewise, hardly one in three Pakistanis expects the economy to strengthen, with optimism highest among youth, rural areas, upper and lower-income groups and residents of Punjab.

The expectation was even 1% lower than the last survey conducted in November 2025, indicating people did not see any improvement in the economic conditions during the past three months.

Personal financial optimism slipped to 40%, one-percentage-point lower than the November 2025 wave. It's better than 2024, when the ratio was 35%.

Confidence to invest also remained low, steadily growing from 11% two years ago to a mere 16% now. It also remained broadly at the level of last seven months and far below the peak of 26% reached after the war with India.

According to the survey, 95% of respondents were uncomfortable about making any major purchase. Comfort in making major purchases edged up from 2% in 2024 to 5% in February, according to Ipsos. However, the ratio was far lower than its peak of 17% eight months ago.

Ipsos said that there was a modest improvement in making investment over the past two years. Despite the whole-of-the-government approach, the foreign direct investment was constantly on the decline. During the first seven months of the current fiscal year, the foreign direct investment plunged over 41% to a mere $981 million, according to the central bank.

Hardly 12% Pakistanis felt comfortable with household purchases, with comfort higher among the youth, affluent, urban and Punjab residents. In the age group of 41 to 50 years, only 6% felt comfortable with making any purchase.

Confidence in job security was also low as the ratio was hardly 23%, far lower the post-Pakistan-India conflict peak. The government's recent report revealed that Pakistan was having a jobless growth, which contributed to higher poverty and higher inequality.

Likewise, four in 10 Pakistanis believed the country was on the right track, with optimism higher among men, upper-lower-middle class, rural residents and in Punjab. Nearly one out of two men saw the country heading in the right direction but the ratio was low among women.

Confidence in the country's direction being right has increased from 12% to 40% since the government came to power. The highest level of 42% was reached soon after the Pakistan-India conflict and the new ratio was lower than that, indicating that people's hopes were fading away after the optimism peaked due to the victory in war.

Economic concerns remained the most worrying, but their quantum has fallen across all issues since 2024, said Ipsos. Increase in inflation was the biggest worry, followed by unemployment and increasing poverty.

According to the planning ministry's report, the poverty in Pakistan was at the highest in 11 years, income inequality was at a 27-year high and unemployment was at 21-year peak.