Bangladesh at the crossroads

Bangladesh's February 2026 national election marks a pivotal moment in the country's political trajectory. Bangladesh Nationalist Party is back in power after nearly two decades. A mass uprising two years ago resulted in Sheikh Hasina's 15-year-long repressive reign coming to an end. It was followed by an extended interim government led by Nobel laureate Dr Muhammad Yunus.

In the wake of the BNP's landslide electoral victory, Tarique Rahman has been sworn in as prime minister. Voter turnout in the highly-anticipated election was around 60 per cent, and international observers described the polls as largely peaceful and credible. Yet, the Awami League was barred from contesting, and that effectively disenfranchised millions. Participation by women and minority groups was also reported to be low, highlighting persistent gaps in political inclusion.

The interim government under Professor Yunus attempted to undertake major institutional reforms, but skeptics argue that progress was slow and remains reversible. Alongside the election, a referendum on the July Charter of constitutional reforms received broad approval as well. This ambitious charter aims to put in place term limits for the prime minister, introduce stronger checks on executive authority, and expand civil liberties. If implemented, such reforms could present a meaningful path toward more accountable governance. However, success will depend on the government implementing the proposed reforms impartially and avoiding selective enforcement.

Legal action initiated by the caretaker set-up against Awami League leaders was also criticised for being politically motivated, which undermined prospects of reconciliation. Political polarisation and the risk of continued vendetta remain high. The recent elections and the referendum took place within a political transition which has excluded not only a major political party, but one which had championed the separation of East Pakistan, and the creation of Bangladesh.

Many Bangladesh watchers are wary of majoritarian dynamics reasserting themselves, and of the BNP government continuing to persecute Awami League supporters as revenge for years of political persecution. If the new government remains unable to transcend the 'politics of vendetta', there may be a repeat of earlier cycles of political violence which have plagued the country since its inception.

The BNP's victory also represents a resurgence of dynastic politics. Tarique Rahman returned from self-imposed exile after 17 years, having fled to the UK to escape charges of corruption. He has taken over the party associated with his mother, Khaleda Zia, and father, Ziaur Rahman. While Tarique Rahman has tried to bring in new people, many of the old BNP stalwarts have also returned to power.

The influence of political families still endures in Bangladesh. The student movement which toppled the Sheikh Hasina government won only a handful of seats, and the progressives within it were disappointed when student leaders decided to align with Jamaat-e-Islami. The increased prominence of Jamaat-e-Islami has raised concerns that conservative forces may shrink space for civil liberties, a fear also being stoked by Sheikh Hasina, who has been given refuge by neighbouring India.

The BNP government appears likely to strengthen ties with Pakistan and China. Relations with Pakistan, long shaped by the legacy of the 1971 war, may become more pragmatic, focusing on trade and military cooperation. Relations with India, however, are likely to remain tense, with Sheikh Hasina still in exile there, from where she will likely continue trying to influence politics at home.

Nonetheless, the 2026 election has come on the heels of a major political transition offering opportunities for reform and a break from past authoritarian practices. BNP's ability to govern effectively, manage vocal opposition and implement impartial reforms will determine whether this election marks a genuine turning point in Bangladesh's political history.