Rising temperatures raise GLOF threat

Pakistan's meteorological authorities have warned that sustained above-normal temperatures in northern regions could sharply increase the risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), as reduced winter precipitation and unusual warming accelerate glacier melt.

In its February, April 2026 outlook, the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) flagged a "high probability" of GLOF events in Gilgit-Baltistan (G-B), cautioning that vulnerable valleys may face heightened danger if the current warming trend persists.

According to the department, below-normal rainfall and snowfall during the winter season, combined with persistent clear-sky conditions, led to a marked rise in temperatures across G-B and Azad Jammu and Kashmir between February 1 and 22.

Daytime temperatures were recorded 3-5°C above normal, while nighttime temperatures remained 1-3.5°C above the 1981-2010 climatological average.

Moreover, in a development that has reduced overnight refreezing, the most significant warming was observed in Gilgit and Bunji, with Chilas and Bunji registering notable increases in minimum temperatures.

The PMD noted that the unusual rise in temperature, particularly at mid to lower altitudes, was accelerating snow and glacier melt. Reduced nighttime cooling is allowing larger volumes of meltwater to accumulate in glacial lakes.

The department warned that rapid melting increases water buildup in both moraine- and glacier-dammed lakes, raising the likelihood of sudden outburst floods in downstream valleys.

If the warming trend continues, the risk of glacier melt acceleration and potential GLOF incidents could intensify in vulnerable areas, including Gilgit, Ghizar, Hunza, Bunji, Chilas and Astore.

The PMD said it is closely monitoring temperature trends, glacier conditions and hydrometeorological parameters and will issue timely advisories to relevant authorities and local communities.

GLOFs involve the sudden release of water and debris from glacial lakes, often resulting in the loss of lives, property and livelihoods in mountainous regions.

According to the Ministry of Climate Change, more than 7.1 million people in G-B and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are vulnerable to such events.

Pakistan is home to over 13,032 glaciers, the largest concentration outside the polar regions, but experts warn that around 10,000 glaciers in Chitral and G-B have been receding due to climate change-driven temperature rise.