US-Iran tension
An unease in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf is pushing the region to the verge of an avoidable confrontation. While the United States is busy amassing its aircraft carriers, Iran too has decided to flex its muscles by indulging in wargames in the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC's proposed two-day live-fire naval exercises are likely to choke a key transit hub for global energy supplies. Reports also say that heavy hardware reinforcement from Moscow to Tehran is tipping the balance of power, and could lead to a military duel with Washington.
The enigma is that this military build-up is taking place at a time when Iran and the US have tactfully agreed to give diplomacy a chance. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has been quoted as saying that Tehran is ready for nuclear talks, but its missiles and defence "will never be negotiated". It remains to be seen if the tripartite talks, with Turkiye on board, will lead to scaling down of tensions or come as an excuse to go over the brink.
President Donald Trump, however, is out with a carrot and stick. He has warned Iran of a devastating blow, reminding it of Operation Midnight Hammer in June last year that almost crippled the Islamic Republic's nuclear edifice. The presence of USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier in the Arabian waters and the open posturing by Israel could turn out to be catastrophic.
Iran with a melting economy at hand, coupled with brewing unrest at home against a lethal crackdown, is on the edges. Notwithstanding the tall claims, as Supreme Leader Syed Ali Khamenei has vowed to defeat an aggression, Iran would be better advised to go out of the way in smoothing its diplomatic path, and avoid a war that might cost it its sovereignty.
It is a good sign, nonetheless, that prospects for a thaw are getting bright. The categorical stance from Riyadh that its airspace shall not be used for an attack on Tehran is promising. Trump should read it as a sign of defiance from the Arab states, and focus his synergies for a deal of his career with the Iranians.