PMD rejects claims linking El Nino, La Nina to current cold wave in Pakistan

The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) on Tuesday categorically rejected claims that the El Niño or La Niña weather phenomena were behind the current cold wave in the country, dismissing the impression that the latter effect was currently strong.

Speaking to The Express Tribune, PMD Deputy Director and spokesperson Anjum Nazir Zaigham said the claim that La Niña is “powerful” right now is incorrect and that the pattern is easing. “The reality is that La Niña is gradually weakening and in February it will become completely neutral,” he said.

Zaigham said La Niña’s behaviour would also be reflected in winter rainfall patterns, arguing that an active phase would likely suppress rain. “If La Niña were active, then there would never be rains in different cities of the country in the winter season because an active La Niña in winter stops the spell of rains,” he said.

The PMD issued the clarification after a warning circulating rapidly on social media — “This is not an ordinary cold” — reignited debate in Pakistan over La Niña and whether it was driving unusual weather.

The message, which also asks “Are you familiar with La Niña?”, links recent episodes of heavy rain and extreme heat to El Niño and La Niña, two climate patterns that form in the Pacific Ocean and can shape weather far beyond the region.

Read More: Pakistan braces for cold snap as La Niña returns

Pakistan is among the countries that can be sharply affected by even small shifts in the global climate system, with impacts often showing up as intense heat, harsh cold, lower rainfall or destructive floods.

Experts say El Niño develops when temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean rise above normal, a shift that can directly influence Pakistan’s weather. During El Niño, they say, heat intensifies across the country, heatwaves last longer and rainfall drops.

Several areas of Sindh and Balochistan can slip into drought conditions, affecting agricultural output and deepening Pakistan’s water crisis, according to experts.

El Niño’s effects can also be felt in winter, when the weather tends to stay relatively mild, potentially reducing snowfall in northern regions, they say. La Niña, by contrast, is linked to unusually cool Pacific waters and can signal hazardous weather conditions for Pakistan during periods of climate instability.

Experts say an active La Niña during the monsoon strengthens rain systems, bringing unusually heavy downpours across parts of the country.

They link Pakistan’s devastating floods in 2010 and 2022 to La Niña conditions, saying intensified rains can drive rivers to overflow, inundate low-lying areas and trigger flash floods in mountainous terrain.

The impact is not limited to the monsoon. During La Niña, experts say, severe cold and unusually heavy snowfall can hit upper regions, while colder winds can push into the plains, disrupting daily life.

Experts say Pakistan’s unusual weather cannot be blamed solely on El Niño or La Niña, warning that the bigger and more dangerous reality is climate change.

They say climate change has made natural hazards more intense and less predictable, raising risks for a developing country with fragile infrastructure, dense populations and limited resources to respond to disasters.

Experts urged authorities to treat weather and seasonal forecasts with seriousness, strengthen urban planning and make disaster management more effective.

They also stressed the need for public awareness during periods of heightened weather risk, warning that delayed action could leave Pakistan facing even greater challenges from climate systems such as El Niño and La Niña in the years ahead.

El Niño and La Niña are Spanish terms. El Niño means “little boy”, a name coined by fishermen in the Americas who associated it with unusually warm Pacific waters.

La Niña means “little girl”, referring to unusually cool sea temperatures. The names have since become part of the scientific vocabulary used worldwide to describe these climate patterns.