Regional realignments: Pakistan, Uzbekistan and Afghan factor

World peace is in turbulence, rather in a shambles. The year 2025 ended leaving a clear note that the world has effectively become unipolar, with only one superpower possessing the ability to cease wars or launch them wherever and whenever it deems necessary. The concept of regional security also confronted harsh reality in Gaza, sending a message that neither regional nor global security is possible if the sole power decides to meddle. New global dynamics are forcing countries towards new collaborations, exemplified by a South Asian country such as Pakistan signing a defence pact with a Middle Eastern power, Saudi Arabia, thus writing a new chapter of history.

The year 2025 was surely a year of Pakistan, as it forced its rival India - traditionally perceived as enjoying supremacy in conventional warfare - into a strategic rethink within hours, followed by Pakistan being overloaded and overwhelmed with military hardware contracts. This broader scenario must be kept in mind while analysing Pakistan's relations with African countries, Middle Eastern states, Russia, China, Iran, Afghanistan and the Central Asian republics.

Although Pakistan is emerging as a rising star of global connectivity, it remains a victim of terrorism emanating from Afghanistan, which also poses a constant threat to Central Asian states. Recently, Tajikistan faced the brunt of Afghanistan's use of terrorism as diplomatic leverage. The targets were Chinese mining workers in Tajikistan after several Chinese mining companies left Afghanistan and chose to continue operations in neighbouring Tajikistan, where they felt more secure. Afghanistan thus sent a loud message to Chinese companies that they would not be safe anywhere if Afghanistan itself was not comfortable with them.

Global intelligence reports confirm that enhanced collaboration among Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Al-Qaeda, East Turkistan Islamic Movement/Turkistan Islamic Party (ETIM/TIP), Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and Jamaat Ansarullah within Afghanistan poses an immediate threat to Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, China and Pakistan. Against this backdrop, enhanced collaboration between Central Asian states and Pakistan is inevitable.

President of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon visited Pakistan in July 2024, while Kyrgyzstan's President Sadyr Nurgozhoevich Zhaparov visited Islamabad in December 2025. This year, the presidents of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are due to visit Pakistan in February. After independence, Uzbekistan was the first Central Asian country to establish direct flight connectivity with Pakistan. Since then, Pakistan-Uzbekistan relations have remained exemplary, with both countries strongly connected to each other.

Both Pakistan and Uzbekistan are members of several international forums, including Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). They also hold Joint Ministerial Commission (JMC) meetings to review bilateral relations. Although Kazakhstan also enjoys close relations with Pakistan, it does not share a border with Afghanistan as Pakistan does. Therefore, the future of Pakistan-Kazakhstan relations is not as deeply intertwined as that of Pakistan-Uzbekistan, as both Pakistan and Uzbekistan face terrorism originating from Afghanistan.

So far, OIC, ECO, and even SCO have failed to play a collective role in pressuring Afghanistan to stop funding, supporting and hosting global terrorist groups. In this scenario, Uzbekistan and Pakistan can collectively convey to Afghanistan that the future of all three countries is interlinked, particularly through projects such as the Uzbekistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan (UAP) railway. This project, which could transform trilateral trade dynamics, was expected to commence in 2025 but could not materialise due to cross-border terrorism funded by Afghanistan against Pakistan.

Although there was a substantial increase in Pakistan-Uzbekistan bilateral trade in the recent past, it has now almost ceased because the Pakistan-Afghanistan border remains closed for trade. The forthcoming visit of the Uzbek President to Pakistan is therefore crucial. Uzbekistan enjoys significant leverage over Afghanistan, as Kabul's trade largely operates through Uzbek territory. Visionary President Shavkat Mirziyoyev can urge Afghanistan to review its foreign policy for regional betterment and for strategically vital trade routes such as the UAP railway. It is pertinent to note that the UAP project is expected to reduce cargo delivery time between Uzbekistan and Pakistan by five days and cut transportation costs by at least 40 per cent.

Looking ahead, the future of Pakistan-Uzbekistan relations rests not only on shared security concerns but also on deep historical and cultural affinities. From the legacy of Silk Route exchanges to the shared Islamic, Persianate and Turkic civilisational influences, both societies have long been connected through trade, scholarship and cultural interaction. These historical linkages provide a strong foundation for trust, people-to-people contact and strategic convergence. By drawing upon this shared past, Pakistan and Uzbekistan can craft a forward-looking partnership that offers a guiding framework for regional stability, economic integration and collective security, rooted in historical relativity yet oriented towards future regional transformation.