Grid at the brink

Pakistan's electricity sector is structurally broken. Nepra's latest review of the national transmission system reads like an indictment of prolonged neglect. One of the largest transmission networks in the world is today crippled by a perverse mix of overloading and underutilisation. The backbone of the system — the 500kV and 220kV lines — remains mostly overloaded, particularly during summer peak demand. Transformers across major grid stations are operating beyond 80% of their rated capacity for years, dangerously flirting with voltage instability.

The true financial burden remains "uncalculable", as Nepra itself admits, due to the absence of hourly digitised operational data. In other words, the system is bleeding money - but no one can say exactly how much. However, the aftermath of this economic merit order pushes up the cost of electricity for everyone. For industry, unreliable and costly electricity means reduced output, lost export competitiveness and job cuts. For small businesses, it translates into higher operating costs and shrinking margins. For households, it shows up as inflated tariffs, erratic supply and a growing sense that the state can no longer deliver essential services efficiently.

What makes this failure particularly damaging is its persistence. Transmission bottlenecks in Rawat, Sheikhupura, Gatti, Jamshoro and Muzaffargarh have been known for years, yet the National Grid Company has repeatedly failed to resolve them. Project delays and cost overruns are routine, inflating capital costs while locking the system into operational inefficiency. Each delayed upgrade silently transfers billions of rupees from consumers to inefficiency.

The first corrective step must be to fast-track high-capacity 500kV and HVDC transmission lines from Jamshoro, Muzaffargarh and coastal hubs to central Punjab. The second should be institutional. The grid is economic infrastructure, and its failure distorts prices across the economy. Transmission planning must be elevated to a strategic function, with long-term investment plans insulated from annual budgetary turbulence.