Pakistan's new alliance

Not the head of the state though, Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir is in the driving seat. One of his initiatives has been to conclude agreements with a number of predominantly Muslim states in the region. The first move in this direction was the defence pact with Saudi Arabia, by far the richest Muslim state in the world. Since the conclusion of this agreement, Pakistan has been visited by several political leaders from the Muslim world. Each visit concluded with the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MOUs), if not a full-fledged agreement. These understandings are not only with the countries of the Arab world. Turkey has also expressed an interest in concluding an agreement with Islamabad.

Among the many flashpoints in the Muslim world is the unrest in Iran (which has subsided of late). The ruling class of clerics had made clear that they would use extreme force to subdue the protesters including groups of women who came out in the streets to agitate for fundamental improvements in the quality of their lives. According to a report by the Iran Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), death toll caused by the use of force by the Islamic state had, by January 11, reached 500, including 14 law enforcement people. Although women were prominently involved in the protests, it was high inflation that was the primary cause.

The official version of the unrest was different from that of the human rights groups. The government said that the enemies of the Iranian people trained a group of saboteurs both inside and outside the country to destroy public and private properties and kill innocent people. "The enemy has infiltrated trained terrorists into the country. Rioters and saboteurs are not the protesting people. We listen to the protesters and have made our utmost efforts to solve their problems," said President Masoud Pezeshkian. Donald Trump, the American president, was preparing his country and the world for America's possible involvement on the side of the protesters. On January 10 he posted on his media account: "Iran is looking at FREEDOM, perhaps like never before. The US stands ready to help!!!!"

Reza Pahlavi, the son of the late Iranian Emperor who fled from the country when Ayatollah Khomeini came out of his exile and boarded a plane bound for Tehran, joined the latest fray in his country. "I'm prepared to return to the country at the first possible opportunity. I'm already planning to do that," he said on Fox News Sunday Morning Features with Maria Bartiromo. "My job is to lead this transition to make sure that no stone is left unturned, that in full transparency, people have an opportunity to elect their leaders freely and to decide their own future."

As a Pakistani newspaper put it in its editorial on January 11, 2026, that there is much for Pakistan to be concerned about. "Iran is an adjacent neighbour and also a brotherly nation. The uprising there cannot be simply considered an internal matter. Given the actors involved and the global forces seeking an opening, Pakistan must remain wary of any situation that brings another global conflict to its doorstep. That said, the ruling class must identify and accept its mistakes and move to address them decisively and transparently. It must win back the trust of those protesting and accommodate their demands to avoid further meltdown. Meanwhile the Iranian people must remain wary of those exploiting their divisions while posing as friends. Ultimately, a nation must decide what is best for itself."

Iran's layered security structure supported by the powerful Revolutionary Guards and Basij paramilitary force - the two together number a million people in arms - makes external coercion of the type Trump threatened to bring about regime change. "External coercion without internal support makes it exceedingly difficult to bring about real change," says Vali Nasr, an Iranian-American who once served as the head of a Washington-based think tank that specialises in international affairs. "For this type of thing to succeed, you have to have crowds in the streets for a much longer period of time. And you have to have a breakup of the state. Some segments of the state and particularly the security forces have to defect," he told Reuters.

Nasr said that while he didn't think the Iranian regime had reached the moment of fall, "it was in a situation of great difficulty going forward." The same conclusion was reached by other analysts. According to Paul Salem of the Middle East Institute, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has survived several past waves of unrest, this being the first major uprising since 2019. The last major protests were the 2022-23 demonstrations sparked by the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, who had been arrested for violating the Islamic dress code for women. It was believed that the security forces had tortured her while she was in prison.

Since January 9, Iranian authorities have shut down the internet, international phone lines and sometimes even domestic phone connections. That has left right groups, journalists and families struggling to understand the scope of what is happening in the country.

Trump's threat to intervene on behalf of protesters had put his country in an awkward situation. In an interview given in the first week of January to The New York Times, he declared that the only limits to his powers as commander in chief were "my own morality" and my "own mind". There couldn't be a more explicit description of authoritarian behaviour. However, experienced people were not impressed. "The road to disappointment for presidents who become enamoured with low-cost, risk-free covert, surgical or other enticing ways to use force is well documented," said Gen Stanley A McChrystal, who ran the Joint Operations Command from the 2003 Iraq invasion by the US until 2008. "Rarely has a covert operation ended a conflict," he said.

It is not clear what understanding is their between Pakistan and the United States in the prevailing situation. However, the American government did not treat Pakistan favourably. It included Pakistan in the list of countries that were not to be granted visas to enter the United States.