SPI up 3.87% on flour, gas prices

Pakistan's weekly inflation, measured by the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI), recorded a 3.87% year-on-year (YoY) increase for the week ended January 15, 2026, reflecting sustained pressure on essential household items despite easing prices of several food staples.

The SPI, compiled on a weekly basis to assess short-term price movements, covers data on 51 essential commodities collected from 50 markets across 17 cities and serves as a key gauge of inflationary trends at the consumer level.

According to official data, the YoY increase of 3.87% was driven largely by sharp rises in staple food and energy-related items. Wheat flour registered the steepest annual increase of 34.90%, while gas charges for the lowest consumption quintile (Q1) surged 29.85%, underscoring the disproportionate burden on lower-income households.

Prices of eggs rose 20.85% compared to the same period of last year, followed by beef at 12.83% and chilli powder at 12.56%. Other notable increases were recorded in sugar (10.43%), firewood (10.35%), gur (9.97%), powdered milk (9.90%), bananas (8.92%), lawn – printed fabric (8.29%) and shirting (7.93%).

In contrast, a significant YoY decline was observed in several vegetables and pulses, providing some relief to consumers. Potato prices fell sharply by 46.60%, while onions declined 37.30% and garlic 35.91%. Tomatoes were down 32.88% on an annual basis, while prices of pulse gram decreased 31.03%. Other items showing YoY declines included Lipton tea (17.79%), pulse mash (13.69%), pulse masoor (9.55%), diesel (1.27%) and petrol (0.95%), reflecting easing fuel costs versus last year.

On a week-on-week (WoW) basis, the SPI increased by 0.25%, indicating a modest uptick in short-term inflationary pressures. Weekly data showed a sharp rise in tomato prices by 27.64%, followed by LPG at 7.03% and wheat flour at 3.26%.

Eggs rose 2.19%, bananas 1.68% and chilli powder 1.02%. Prices of firewood, pulse moong, georgette fabric, mustard oil and powdered milk also recorded marginal increases during the week.

Meanwhile, notable WoW declines were seen in potatoes (6.72%) and onions (3.82%), while chicken prices fell 1.66%. Other items registering minor weekly decreases included salt powder, pulse gram, broken Basmati rice, vegetable ghee (1kg) and pulse masoor.

Income-wise analysis showed that the impact of YoY inflation varied across consumption quintiles, ranging from 3.16% for the highest-income group (Q5) to 4.52% for Q2, highlighting persistent cost-of-living pressures on middle- and lower-income segments.

Out of the 51 items monitored during the week, prices of 13 items (25.49%) increased, 13 items (25.49%) decreased, while 25 items (49.02%) remained unchanged, suggesting mixed price dynamics amid ongoing inflationary challenges.