Climate adaptation

Pakistan faces a whopping $566 billion tab if it is to meet its climate mitigation targets by 2035. For context, the amount is larger than the whole economy and about 10 times the federal budget. The huge figure was highlighted in recent analyses and represents the colossal scale of investment needed to secure a resilient future for the nation, which has taken a battering on the front lines of a crisis it did not create.

As is well known, at this point, Pakistan contributes less than 1% to global greenhouse gas emissions, yet consistently ranks among the world's most vulnerable countries to climate change. Events such as the devastating 2022 monsoon floods — which submerged a third of the country, displaced millions and caused over $30 billion in damage — have gone from once-in-a-century to once-in-a-lifetime to once-in-a-decade, and continue to grow more frequent.

Unfortunately, Pakistan is far from the only country affected by an increase in climate events, which creates donor fatigue among rich countries and the private sector. This in turn creates funding gaps that have taken their toll on recovery operations and long-term social development, as government funds must be diverted from health, education and other core areas.

One of the biggest problems is that there is no 'you break it, you buy it' rule in international law. While several countries have domestic equivalents in their environmental laws - sometimes referred to as the 'polluter pays principle' — most of the major historical polluters continue to hand out lollipops instead of aid proportionate to their impact. Meanwhile, the US — the worst polluter of all time — is now led by a president who outright denies the existence of climate change and has slashed foreign assistance and local and international climate adaptation funding, while also ending many environmental regulations.

If rich countries wait until the devastation of climate change arrives on their shores, it may already be too late.