Wither peace in Gaza
Looking back, phase one of President Donald Trump's much-touted 20-point Gaza plan was never meant to resolve the conflict. It was designed, at best, to pause it. Measured against that modest yardstick, phase one delivered fragile and deeply contested outcomes — more a ceasefire on paper than peace on the ground.
The most tangible achievement of phase one was a reduction, not a cessation, of active hostilities. Since the ceasefire took effect on October 10, 2025, the intensity of Israeli attacks declined compared to the peak of the war. That, in itself, offered a sliver of relief to a battered population. But the ceasefire proved porous. Nearly 450 Palestinians were killed during this period, including over 100 children. For Gaza's civilians, this was less a ceasefire than a throttling down of violence. The second deliverable — the hostage-prisoner exchange — was ambiguous in its success. Hamas released all 20 living Israeli captives and returned 27 of the 28 bodies of deceased hostages.
In exchange, Israel freed nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners. Yet even here, the record is incomplete as Israel has not released all prisoners it committed to, and the final Israeli body remains unrecovered, now being used as leverage as talks move into phase two. On Israeli troop withdrawals, phase one achieved little. Israel agreed to a partial pullback from certain areas, but no clear, verifiable boundaries were established. This deliberate vagueness allowed Israel to retain operational freedom inside Gaza. Humanitarian access was another stated pillar of phase one. Aid flows did increase, and the Rafah crossing was intermittently opened, easing pressure on an enclave on the brink of famine. However, the UN has been unequivocal that the aid surge fell well short of Gaza's needs and was repeatedly disrupted.
Phase two has now been initiated with promises of demilitarisation, technocratic governance and reconstruction — all while the outcomes of phase one have not been reconciled. There is a need for genuine peace if phase two is to amount to anything.