PMD dismisses chances of ‘extreme winter’

December conditions align with PMD’s seasonal outlook for December-January-February 2025-26

The Met Office has categorically rejected the ‘unverified claims’ on social and mainstream media about the likelihood of an extremely cold winter in Pakistan in the coming days.

According to a statement issued on Tuesday, the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) said these claims are not supported by the seasonal winter forecast for December-January-February period or by prevailing regional and global climate indicators.

Moreover, observational data recorded by the PMD to date, does not substantiate these assertions. In particular, the conditions observed during December, are consistent with the PMD's seasonal outlook for the December-January-February 2025-26.

It said the PMD outlook, developed using World Meteorological Organization (WMO)-supported regional and global climate prediction systems, indicates near-normal to slightly below-normal rainfall, with temperatures expected to remain slightly above normal over most parts of the country.

It said the observations to date align with this forecast, characterised by overall below-normal rainfall, limited light to moderate precipitation over western and northwestern regions, and predominantly above-normal temperatures, especially across Gilgit-Baltistan, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, and Balochistan.

According to the PMD, the ongoing evolution of the winter season remains in close agreement with its pre-season outlook and does not support claims of extreme winter conditions. “The public and stakeholders are advised to rely on the PMD's official announcement for accurate, timely, and scientifically validated weather and climate information,” the statement added.

A day earlier, the PMD said Karachi port is expected to experience a further drop in temperature over the coming weekend, with the mercury likely to fall to 9 degrees Celsius on Saturday and Sunday.

According to PMD spokesperson Anjum Nazir Zaigham, chilly conditions will persist during the night and early morning hours over the next few days. He said a noticeable decrease in temperature is expected towards the end of the week, when minimum temperatures may reach single digits in some parts of the city.

Speaking to The Express Tribune, the spokesperson explained that a cold wave was anticipated at the beginning of the week; however, the presence of continuous upper-air troughs over Karachi has prevented Siberian winds from fully penetrating the region. He added that once these winds become active, a further intensification of cold conditions cannot be ruled out.