Unrest in Iran has its genesis in governance and grievances
The writer is a senior journalist and analyst
Iran once again is simmering with protests. The uprising is economy-centric, though. The prevalent disgust is against the centralisation of powers in the religious coterie since the 1979 Revolution, which has come down hard on those campaigning for civil liberties. Despite the Islamic Republic being the only democratic nomenclature in the region that resorts to public mandate for its presidential system of governance, the power nexus is camouflaged under the wings of the military-centric IRGC, directly under the tutelage of the Supreme Leader. This is where the problem rests, as it has not been able to deliver socio-political equilibrium for an egalitarian society.
The latest upheavals erupting from Azna in Lorestan province, southwest of Tehran, are reportedly gathering momentum. This time, however, there is a marked difference in pattern as well as the response from the government. The agitators are widely desisting from vandalism, and the dispensation of President Pezeshkian has been wise enough to admit the genuineness of taking to the streets.
In a Machiavellian rejoinder, pro-regime activists are also seen assembling in larger numbers to show solidarity with the system in vogue. This seems to be a political masterstroke from the powers-that-be, humbly realising that the policy of cracking down — as has been the case in yesteryears — had discredited the regime.
The question is, what's next? With a dozen casualties already on board, will the protesters go back home, or will they dig in their heels? With outside powers' longstanding passion to see a 'regime change' in Tehran, will the unrest emulate Sofia, Dhaka or Kathmandu? Will the US hobnob explicitly in the crisis and make room for its physical intervention? Or will the government itself show its desperation and go over the brink by using excessive power against the people?
The answer is somewhere in between the probabilities, and the outcome will push the Republic in more chaos and societal degeneration. While the uprising is peerless, as has been the case previously, too, the genesis of turmoil is well ingrained. The people are sick of isolation and want the regime to open up to the international order. Sanctions have dented their enterprising potential and pushed them into the abyss of uncertainty.
People nurse genuine grievances in terms of dipping growth, which is less than 3%, and soaring inflation to the tune of 42%. The exchange rate is around 28,500-toman to a dollar, and the state funnels in almost $18 billion of subsidies per annum from an oil export dividend of $78 billion.
The IRGC, with reported assets worth $6 billion, is the sole business conglomerate. The Inc role is being questioned as it allegedly amasses wealth for financing proxies in the Middle East and synergising the armed forces. Despite sanctions, Iran has been successful in setting in an axis of resistance with geopolitical inclination towards Russia and China, as well as Europe to a great extent. Yet, people are not happy with repeated governments run on ideological premises that have lacked expertise in the economy, technology and R&D.
Iran's nuclear obsession has cost it more than $1 trillion to this day, forcing the revolutionary zeal to look the other way as corruption and misgovernance take new heights. This is where a renaissance is desired, and the path forward is to harbour the talent and opinion within the society, and shun radicalism at home and abroad.
The civil disobedience has its roots in soaring unemployment, which has hit 22% among the youth. The US dollar has dropped by 56% in the six months, and the change in the consumer price index is around 34% per annum. For the first time after 1979, the businesspeople are on the streets, sending a déjà vu of the 'Bazaar uprising' that led to the downfall of Reza Shah Pahlavi.
The 92 million population deserve a better deal. Stubbornness in foreign policy, slumping purchasing power to the extent of 50% in rural areas and disregard for human rights have taken a toll. It's time to start a rectification process and empower the masses. A change is indispensable, and it should start from the highest echelon by rewriting a new social contract. That is how Iranians can steer clear of foreign intervention and domestic abomination.