Govt urged to sue India over 'water war'

Following Pakistan's victory over India in a short-term war, India has launched what experts describe as a "water war" against Pakistan by releasing and storing water in its dams in a manner that has damaged Pakistani crops.

Experts say Pakistan should now take the matter to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to seek sanctions against India for waging a water war in violation of international obligations. India is bound under the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) to share information with Pakistan whenever it plans to release or store water, or construct run-of-the-river dams on rivers allocated to Pakistan, including the Chenab.

Pakistan and India have a long history of legal disputes over water. The latest legal battle emerged after India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, prompting international arbitration.

International arbitrators later endorsed Pakistan's position, ruling that the treaty cannot be unilaterally suspended and remains fully intact and binding on both countries.

Experts reiterated that India is legally required to share water-related data with Pakistan, including details of releases, storage and construction of run-of-the-river hydropower projects.

Former Indus Water Commissioner Jamaat Ali Shah told The Express Tribune that India cannot take unilateral actions under the treaty and must share all relevant data with Pakistan. He said India is currently building a run-of-the-river dam on the Chenab River. A panel under India's environment ministry has recently approved the 260-megawatt Dulhasti Stage-II hydropower project in the Kishtwar district of Indian-occupied Jammu and Kashmir.

"India is bound to share information with Pakistan relating to any project, including run-of-the-river schemes, under the Indus Waters Treaty," he said, adding that Pakistan should take the issue to international arbitration.

While such projects may not immediately affect water inflows, he said the obligation to share information remains mandatory.

He noted that although India announced suspension of the treaty, both a neutral expert and the court of arbitration ruled in Pakistan's favour and confirmed that hearings on water disputes would continue.

"Pakistan should now approach the ICJ," he said, adding that if the court rules in Pakistan's favour, India could face sanctions similar to those imposed on Iran.

He pointed out that the European community has invested over $40 billion in India and that sanctions could lead to suspension of foreign investment, including from Europe.

He also recalled that US President Donald Trump had announced his intention to help resolve the water dispute between Pakistan and India. When asked about US mediation, he said Pakistan should pursue legal and diplomatic avenues simultaneously.

Pakistan has already warned that it could strike dams being built by India on Pakistani rivers as a last resort to protect its water rights.

Impact on agriculture

The Ministry of Water Resources said the Punjab Irrigation Department is monitoring Chenab River flows at Marala, excluding Jammu and Manawar Tawi, and sharing data with the office of the Pakistan Commissioner for Indus Waters.

According to the ministry, recent data shows that Chenab flows have stabilised after a period of extreme volatility. Hydrological records indicate an extraordinary reduction in flows from December 10 to December 16, 2025.

During this period, river discharge fell sharply, with the lowest recorded flow at 870 cusecs, far below the historical 10-year minimum range of 4,018 to 4,406 cusecs.

Satellite imagery from December 8 and December 13, 2025, showed a sharp reduction followed by an increase in the surface area of the Baglihar reservoir, indicating that India had emptied and then refilled the reservoir.

Following these developments, Pakistan's Commissioner for Indus Waters raised the matter with the Indian commissioner and sought detailed data under the treaty framework.

Experts say these actions were aimed at damaging Pakistani crops.

A farmer from South Punjab, Muhammad Altaf, said canal water supplies had become erratic. "Sometimes we do not receive water for one or two weeks without any intimation," he said. Chairman Kisan Ittehad Khalid Hussain Bath told The Express Tribune that India had earlier released water during floods, damaging farmers, and was now restricting flows when crops needed irrigation. He said Balochistan would be less affected due to limited canal coverage, but Punjab and Sindh would face serious consequences. He urged Pakistan to intensify diplomatic efforts to pressure India to comply with the Indus Waters Treaty.