Recognising Somaliland

Israel's recognition of Somaliland is being defended in some quarters as a sovereign diplomatic choice. In reality, it is a strategic intervention into one of the most fragile geopolitical theatres in the world, the Horn of Africa - and one whose consequences are likely to outlast whatever short-term leverage Tel Aviv believes it has gained.

Somaliland's claim to statehood is not new. Its unilateral declaration of independence in 1991, following the collapse of Somalia's central authority, has endured for over three decades without international endorsement. Israel's move breaks from that consensus - as an act not of diplomatic sympathy but of strategic positioning. Somaliland occupies a critical stretch of coastline along the Gulf of Aden - a maritime chokepoint through which a significant portion of global trade passes. For Israel, which has faced sustained pressure from Yemen's Houthi movement since the Gaza war began, access to this geography offers depth and reach against its adversaries. Recognition, in this context, is leverage. It creates the political basis for intelligence access and, potentially, a long-term presence in a corridor where Israel's adversaries have demonstrated both intent and capability. The response from the OIC, supported by Pakistan and 21 other states, is a form of resistance against this. The concern is not limited to Somalia's sovereignty. It is about precedent. If unilateral secession can be legitimised by external recognition, then the already fragile architecture of post-colonial statehood across Africa and West Asia becomes further eroded.

Sharp reaction from Yemen's Houthi leadership adds another layer of risk. Their warning that any Israeli presence in Somaliland would constitute a military target may be rhetorically charged, but it aligns with the steady expansion of the Gaza conflict into adjacent theatres. The Red Sea has already absorbed this spillover. Somaliland, hitherto diplomatically isolated but internally stable, risks being drawn into a conflict not of its making.