A year of fragile balance

The year 2025 saw Pakistan reach a fragile relationship with the concept of stability, as years of economic instability finally appear to be behind us, but political instability remains high enough to cause concern across the board. In fact, there is a strange irony in Pakistan making international headlines mostly for good reasons at a time when political instability at home is nonexistent.

Even on the economic front, critics have noted that things are not as rosy as headline statistics would suggest. Rigorous adherence to IMF conditions has helped achieve economic stabilisation, but the intensive austerity measures, including cuts to social services, have taken a heavy long-term toll on Pakistan that is difficult to measure. We have lost millions of skilled workers to greener pastures abroad over the past few years, and it will take several years for the impact of this brain drain to become clear. Similarly, the real impact of cuts to health and education spending will not be obvious for several years and will take several years more to correct. Poverty — one of the simplest measures of overall quality of life — has shot past 25% after several years of decline. Meanwhile, over 88% of Pakistanis now live below the World Bank's global poverty rate of $5.50 per day.

Simultaneously, the political landscape has shown no signs of stabilising, as neither the government and establishment nor the PTI-led opposition seems interested in finding common ground. The persistent standoff between the PTI and federal authorities has escalated into an "unprecedented breakdown" in civil-military relations. Beyond its impact on the body politic, the division has been a direct contributor to an increase in terrorism and other criminal activity, as party politics have been given priority over actual governance.

And yet, rising insecurity at home was accompanied by security abroad, as the government agreed to a historic defence pact with Saudi Arabia, just months after a protracted conflict with India that may have been a 'success' in the moment, but did not actually resolve any longstanding disputes with our eastern neighbour. In fact, while the conflict and its aftermath were among the few unifying events of the past year, events along the western border undermined those successes, especially in Balochistan, where unrest continues to scare off investment and development alike. As for Afghanistan, relations with the country hit their lowest ebb since the Taliban's return to power, as the Afghan Taliban chose to side with their ideological brothers, the TTP.

As the year closes, the path forward is clear but perilous. The economic stability so painstakingly achieved is fragile, built on a foundation of austerity that risks social unrest. Diplomatic and military credibility abroad cannot be sustained indefinitely without healing the deep political rifts and security threats at home. Geopolitical manoeuvring is akin to life support. A cure for the problem can only be found in an inclusive social contract that protects the vulnerable and heals deep wounds.