Avatar: Fire and Ash projected to earn up to $380M in opening weekend

James Cameron’s highly anticipated Avatar: Fire and Ash is projected to open with a worldwide first weekend gross of $340 million to $380 million, marking one of the biggest box office launches of 2025.

The threequel from 20th Century Studios follows Avatar: The Way of Water, which debuted in 2022 with $444 million globally.

The domestic release is expected to generate over $90 million in its opening weekend across 3,800 theaters, including 430 IMAX 3D auditoriums, 1,050 premium large-format screens, and 380 D-Box/4D motion theaters. The film’s overseas rollout begins in key markets including France, Germany, Italy, and Korea, with major launches in China, the UK, Japan, and India following.

Fire and Ash spans 3 hours and 17 minutes, and critical reception is currently at 71% on Rotten Tomatoes, slightly lower than its predecessors. Analysts note that the 13-year gap between the original and this sequel may affect presales, though strong fan anticipation is expected to drive significant attendance during the holiday season.

The threequel faces counterprogramming competition, with Angel Studios’ David forecasted at $20M-$25M, Lionsgate’s thriller The Housemaid around $20M, and Paramount’s SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants expected at $15M-$20M. Despite competition, Avatar: Fire and Ash is positioned for a strong global run, continuing the franchise’s dominance at the box office.

Cameron and the film’s cast have promoted the release with premieres in China, Paris, Milan, Madrid, Tokyo, London, and Los Angeles, building anticipation for the final installment of the Pandora trilogy.