PSX stays quiet amid mixed macros

The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) saw a quiet week, with the KSE-100 index edging up 408 points to close at 167,086, as sentiment remained steady amid mixed economic indicators and key developments on the external financing front.

AHL's weekly review noted that Saudi Arabia rolled over its $3 billion deposit with the State Bank of Pakistan until December 2026, while headline inflation held nearly unchanged at 6.1% in November. However, weakness in trade performance, slower OMC and cement dispatches, and a widening deficit underscored persisting macro pressures, even as reserves and the rupee marked marginal improvement.

On a day-on-day basis, the PSX kicked off Dec'25 on a strong note, with the KSE-100 index closing at 168,062, up 1,385 points, or 0.83%. On Tuesday, the market witnessed profit-taking as the index closed at 167,642, down 420 points, or 0.25%.

As anticipated, the bourse continued its consolidation between the 166-168k range on Wednesday, with the KSE-100 closing at 166,145, down 1,495 points, or 0.89%. The PSX extended its consolidation phase on Thursday and closed flat at 166,284, up 138 points, or 0.08%.

The market ended the week by extending its consolidation phase but the KSE-100 managed to close above the 167k mark at 167,086, posting a gain of 802 points, or 0.48%.

AHL observed that the KSE-100 index increased from 166,677 last week to 167,086 this week, posting a modest increase of 408 points (+0.24% WoW). Saudi Arabia on Thursday rolled over its $3 billion deposit with the State Bank for another year, extending the facility to Dec'26.

Headline inflation for Nov'25 stood at 6.1% YoY, showing little change from October's reading of 6.2% and broadly aligning with expectations. Oil marketing companies' sales in Nov'25 came in at 1.4 million tons, reflecting a 5% MoM and 10% YoY decline, whereas cumulative 5MFY26 sales rose by 1% YoY to 6.81 million tons.

Pakistan's trade deficit widened to $2.9 billion in Nov'25, as exports fell to $2.4 billion (a decline of 15.4% YoY and 15.8% MoM) while imports increased to $5.3 billion (up 5.4% YoY, though down 13.7% MoM). Over 5MFY26, the cumulative deficit expanded by 37.2% YoY to $15.5 billion.

Cement dispatches in Nov'25 stood at 4.14 million tons, marking a 3.2% YoY and 13.1% MoM decline due to softer domestic demand and lower exports. Despite this, 5MFY26 dispatches grew 11.5% YoY to 21.4 million tons.

Urea offtake rose sharply by 25% YoY in Nov'25 to 817k tons, driven by strong Rabi-season demand and increased discounts by manufacturers, although cumulative 11MCY25 urea sales remained 4% lower YoY. DAP offtake, however, declined by 14% YoY to 216k tons.

The central government debt reached Rs77 trillion in Oct'25, reflecting a 0.5% MoM increase and an 11.4% YoY rise from Rs69.1 trillion in Oct'24. The SBP-held reserves rose by $14 million to $14.57 billion during the week, while commercial bank reserves remained broadly stable at $5.01 billion, AHL said.

Danyal Hussain of JS Global wrote that the KSE-100 remained largely range bound during the week, closing at 167,086 points, reflecting a 0.2% WoW increase. Market participation improved, with average daily turnover increasing 21% WoW.

The week commenced with inflation for Nov'25 arriving at 6.1%, taking 5MFY26 average inflation to 5% compared to 7.9% during the same period of last year. Meanwhile, the country's trade deficit widened by 33% YoY to $2.85 billion, as exports fell 15% YoY while imports rose 5% during the month.

Additionally, the FBR's tax revenue collection recorded a shortfall of around Rs349 billion in 5MFY26. In governance and reform developments, the finance minister stated that an action plan for implementing 15 priority IMF recommendations will be finalised by the end of December 2025.

In other news, Saudi Arabia extended its $3 billion deposit facility for Pakistan until Dec'26, providing a much-needed external account support. Pakistan's central government debt rose to Rs77 trillion in Oct'25, driven mainly by domestic borrowings, which climbed 23% YoY to Rs45.49 trillion. On the privatisation front, final bidding for PIA is scheduled for December 23, Hussain said.