Sensitive Price Index climbs 4.32% on sugar rate hike

Pakistan's Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI), a key measure of short-term inflation, recorded a year-on-year (YoY) increase of 4.32% for the week ended November 27, 2025, according to the latest report from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).

This uptick reflects ongoing pressures from staple food items and energy costs, though significant declines in vegetable prices moderate it.

The SPI, which tracks 51 essential commodities across 17 urban centres, stood at 337.99 for the combined consumption group, up from 324 in the corresponding week of 2024.

The YoY surge was driven primarily by sharp rises in sugar (44.09%), gas charges for the lowest consumption quintile (Q1) (29.85%), wheat flour (16.35%), gur (16.24%), beef (13.46%), firewood (12.74%), diesel (11.66%), bananas (11.27%), 2.5kg vegetable ghee (9.17%), powdered milk (8.64%), lawn – printed fabric (8.29%) and five-litre cooking oil (7.61%). These increases highlight persistent challenges in food and fuel affordability, particularly for lower-income households.

However, the report also noted notable YoY decreases that helped temper overall inflation, including garlic (-38.54%), potatoes (-34.96%), pulse gram (-28.96%), tomatoes (-26.64%), onions (-19.05%), Lipton tea (-17.79%), pulse mash (-14.97%), electricity charges for Q1 (-8.40%), salt powder (-4.23%) and LPG (-2.54%). These drops, especially in seasonal vegetables, provided some relief amid broader economic strains.

On a week-on-week (WoW) basis, the SPI climbed by 0.73% compared to the previous week ending November 20, 2025. This short-term rise was fueled by increases in electricity charges for Q1 (11.11%), LPG (3.51%), pulse moong (1.92%), 2.5kg vegetable ghee (1.12%), bananas (0.65%), five-litre cooking oil (0.64%), powdered milk (0.43%), 1kg vegetable ghee (0.38%), cigarettes (0.25%), firewood and sugar (0.20% each) and beef (0.01%).

Conversely, significant WoW declines were seen in tomatoes (-28.39%), onions (-10.08%), potatoes (-4.58%), salt powder (-2.47%), pulse gram (-1.18%), garlic (-1.12%), eggs (-0.75%) and wheat flour (-0.70%).

Out of the 51 tracked items, prices of 14 (27.45%) increased, 12 (23.53%) decreased and 25 (49.02%) remained stable during the week.

The impact varied across consumption quintiles: the lowest quintile (Q1, up to Rs17,732 monthly expenditure) saw a WoW decrease of 0.09% but a YoY rise of 3.85%, while higher quintiles experienced WoW gains ranging from 0.28% to 0.99%, with YoY changes between 3.79% and 4.70%.

Looking at longer-term trends, the PBS data shows the SPI for the lowest quintile has fluctuated significantly in recent years. Monthly figures indicate a 1.04% increase in November 2025 over October, with a YoY jump of 7.30%. Quarterly and half-yearly analyses reveal a mixed recovery pattern post-2022, with the first quarter of 2025-26 (July-September) showing a 5.68% increase over the previous quarter and a 2.08% YoY rise.