Climate shocks push districts in Punjab toward disaster
South Punjab is the epicentre of an unfolding crisis in Punjab whose most climate-exposed districts are slipping deeper into vulnerability as repeated environmental shocks, heatwaves, floods, drought pockets and extended smog cycles collide with fragile service delivery systems.
A Population Council investigation presents new district level evidence that climate change is no longer a background stressor but the central force reshaping access to health, education and population services across much of the province.
“Without urgent district level interventions, Punjab could slide into long-term human development regression,” said population and health expert Ikram ul Ahad. The summer’s heatwave, one of the harshest in decades, pushed temperatures above 50°C, burning crops, drying water sources and amplifying medical emergencies. Rajanpur, Muzaffargarh, Layyah, Bahawalnagar and Dera Ghazi Khan endured back-to-back disasters that systematically crippled essential services. Field officials reported widespread dehydration, heat strokes and food insecurity as thousands of poor families lost their seasonal earnings. The collapse in the cotton and sugarcane belts forced many households to migrate temporarily or take loans to survive, tightening the cycle of poverty in areas already classified as high-risk.
Flash flooding the monsoon breached protective bunds in tehsils, washing away link roads, destroying schools and cutting off entire villages for days. Health officials admitted that Lady Health Workers were unable to reach dozens of flood-struck union councils, leaving pregnant women and new mothers without counselling, vaccination or family planning services. Several rural Basic Health Units remained inaccessible, and the few that stayed open struggled without medicines or staff, exposing how quickly essential systems collapse under climate pressures.
Central Punjab faced a different but equally damaging climate assault. Cities including Lahore, Gujranwala, Faisalabad and Sheikhupura remained blanketed in hazardous smog for weeks. Hospitals reported overwhelming patient loads as respiratory infections, asthma flare ups, eye ailments and cardiac complications surged. Lahore’s major facilities recorded tens of thousands of pollution related cases in a matter of weeks, prompting doctors to warn that the health burden from environmental toxicity is rising faster than capacity can handle. The review found that urban health infrastructure is poorly equipped to manage prolonged climate linked emergencies, especially when smog seasons now extend longer each year.
Read: Karachi headed for extreme heat: UN report
The Population Council’s Dr. Ali Mir said that Pakistan’s development agenda cannot move forward without confronting the district level inequities that climate change is magnifying. New evidence shows entrenched deprivation in districts where people live dozens of kilometres from working health centres, where dropout rates rise after every climate disaster and where demographic pressures intersect with environmental stresses to create chronic vulnerability. Climate shocks are not producing new inequalities, they are widening old ones that were ignored for years.
Investigators reviewing district data found that both rural and urban margins are being pushed into crisis due to the absence of climate responsive planning. In several South Punjab districts, school rebuilding after floods stayed pending months after the monsoon, delaying children’s return to classrooms. In Central Punjab, authorities have failed to enforce emissions regulations despite successive smog emergencies, allowing polluting industries and crop-burning practices to continue with minimal oversight. In peri-urban settlements, residents reported declining water quality and rising skin infections clear indicators of climate linked sanitation failures. These patterns, when viewed collectively, show a province struggling with systemic erosion rather than isolated climate incidents.
What is needed is more climate resilient infrastructure, stronger health workforce deployment, early warning mechanisms for heatwaves and floods, and integrated district planning that prioritizes women and children groups. But Mir and Ahad privately conceded that progress has been slow, funding remains thin and political focus shifts quickly once crises fade from headlines.
The investigation concludes that Punjab is now confronting a climate reality that exposes weaknesses faster than institutions can repair them.