SBP reserves edge up $9m to $14.6b

Total forex deposits oscillate around $19.6b; gold steady despite global dip on Fed cut jitters

KARACHI:

Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves recorded a marginal increase during the week ended November 21, 2025, with the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reporting a $9 million rise in its holdings. According to data released on Thursday, the SBP's reserves reached $14,560.7 million, helping lift the country's total liquid foreign exchange reserves to $19,605 million.

Data breakdown showed that commercial banks held $5,044.3 million in net foreign reserves, while the central bank continued to maintain the bulk of the national buffer.

The Pakistani rupee inched up against the US dollar in the inter-bank market, closing at 280.55, an appreciation of one paisa from the previous session. On Wednesday, the currency had finished at 280.56.

Gold prices in Pakistan remained stable, even as international bullion rates edged lower amid uncertainty over a possible US rate cut in December. In global markets, spot gold slipped 0.1% to $4,159.31 per ounce by 1423 GMT, while US gold futures for December delivery fell 0.3% to $4,156.30 per ounce.

Locally, gold held steady, with the per-tola price unchanged at Rs438,862, according to the All-Pakistan Gems and Jewellers Sarafa Association. The 10-gram rate also stayed flat at Rs376,253. A day earlier, the per-tola price had risen by Rs2,300 to reach Rs438,862.

Adnan Agar, Director at Interactive Commodities, said the likelihood of a US rate cut in December remains "balanced at 50-50" as the Federal Reserve's decision will hinge almost  entirely on crucial economic data set to be released in the first week of the month.

He explained that due to a recent US government shutdown, key indicators for September and October – including inflation readings and labour market figures – were not published on time, creating unusual uncertainty for policymakers. This delay has made the upcoming data releases significantly more important as they will provide the Fed with its first clear picture of economic direction in several months.

Agar noted that if inflation shows a downward trend or remains stable and if the labour market appears to be cooling, the conditions would favour a 25-basis-point rate cut. Lower interest rates reduce the cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold, which typically strengthens demand for the metal.

He emphasised that this dynamic is central to gold's price movements, as investors often shift towards gold when borrowing costs fall and opportunity costs decline.

However, if the data indicates rising inflation or continued strength in employment, the Fed is unlikely to cut rates, opting instead to maintain current levels. Agar added that while a rate hike is not expected, the absence of a cut could limit gold's upward momentum in the near term.