PSX stays range bound before futures rollover

The KSE-100 index of the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) inched up 168 points to close at 162,103 on Friday, supported by renewed optimism about the recovering large-scale manufacturing (LSM) sector and company-specific triggers that lifted select blue chips.

On a day-on-day basis, the PSX commenced the week with a profit-taking session as the index, after swinging in both directions, ultimately settled at 161,987, down 248 points, or 0.15%.

On Tuesday, the market witnessed further profit-booking, where the KSE-100 closed in the red at 160,935, lower by 752 points, or 0.47%. Bulls made a comeback on Wednesday as the bourse wrapped up the session on a positive note at 162,226, up a robust 1,291 points, or 0.80%. PSX extended gains on Thursday, with the KSE-100 ending the day at 162,937, translating into a rise of 711 points, or 0.44%. As expected, the market closed the week by slipping into the red on Friday, falling 834 points, or 0.51%, at 162,103 ahead of the rollover week.

Arif Habib Limited (AHL), in its weekly report, noted that the KSE-100 index rose 168 points to close at 162,103, buoyed by a recovering LSM sector and positive sector-specific catalysts. Fauji Fertiliser Company (FFC) led gains following its inclusion in the KMI-30, Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) attracted interest from new offshore activities and Pioneer Cement rallied amid potential merger and acquisition-related developments, it said. During the week, Pakistan recorded a $3.28 billion trade deficit in October 2025. Cumulatively, the 4MFY26 trade deficit widened 38.9% year-on-year (YoY) to $12.6 billion. The LSM output grew 2.7% YoY in September 2025, with a 2% uptick month-on-month (MoM).

Technology exports reached a record $386 million in Oct'25, up 17% YoY (5% MoM). Tech exports now account for 47% of total services exports, marking their highest-ever monthly level, AHL said.

The Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) rose to 103.95 in Oct'25, up 2.18% MoM and 6.04% in FY26 to date. Net foreign direct investment (FDI) was $179 million in Oct'25, with 4MFY26 FDI down 26% YoY to $748 million. Auto financing rose 33.7% YoY to Rs315 billion in Oct'25, up 3.5% MoM.

Crude oil imports rose 28.5% YoY to 691,479 tons in Oct'25, while petroleum product imports increased 30.6% YoY. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports fell 11% YoY and furnace oil exports surged to 214k tons. Power generation fell 3.7% YoY to 9,886 gigawatt hours (GWh) in Oct'25, with 4MFY26 production stable at 50,819 GWh, while costs dropped 6% YoY to Rs8.51 per kilowatt hour, supported by lower Brent crude.

Banking deposits rose 13% YoY to Rs35.2 trillion in Oct'25, while advances fell 3.6% YoY to Rs13.3 trillion. The advance-to-deposit ratio stood at 37.8% (-650 basis points YoY) and the investment-to-deposit ratio at 104% (+1,098 basis points).

Profit and dividend repatriation in Oct'25 totalled $385.6 million, down 6.8% YoY but up 142.6% MoM, while 4MFY26 repatriation rose 39% YoY to $1,137.3 million, AHL added.

Wadee Zaman of JS Global noted that the KSE-100 exhibited largely sideways movement during the outgoing week, closing flat at 162,103 points. The average daily turnover was up 37% week-on-week.

On the macro front, Zaman said, Pakistan recorded a current account deficit of $112 million in Oct'25, taking the cumulative 4MFY26 deficit to $733 million. This deterioration was primarily driven by a widening trade deficit, which surged 39% YoY to $12.7 billion during 4MFY26.

In other news, Pakistan's dollar bond rallied 24.5% this year, featuring among the top-performing bonds in the region. The government also plans to raise funds through dollar bonds next year, after a hiatus of nearly five years. In another development, Pakistan met a condition of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as the Ministry of Finance released the Governance and Corruption Diagnostics Report ahead of the IMF executive board meeting for approval of a $1.2 billion tranche.

The LSM sector continued to show signs of recovery, with output rising 2.69% YoY in Sept'25, taking cumulative growth for 1QFY26 to 4.08%, Zaman added.