Viewing Middle East through four lenses

There are four lenses through which I view the Middle East today. The first is the current mood of the Palestinian people; the second, the imprint of President Donald Trump's policies on the region; the third, what the Middle East has lived through during the first two decades of the 21st century; and lastly, what may yet shape its future in the remaining years of this decade.

The war in Gaza had a colossal effect on the lives of the people there as they saw their near and dear ones die so violently. Even today, they continue to search for answers. They can't find them in the Parliaments like Israel and now not even in the comforting certainties of their mosques as most of them have been destroyed by Israeli bombardment. They hate Abraham Accords and they hate the American imposed ideology of Abrahimism but they believe that Islamism as an ideology will move on as they still get together as a community and pray in the makeshift mosques. People of Palestine believed in Hamas and Hamas' slogan that 'it would fight to death for Jerusalem', which resonated with the Palestinians.

Especially after what President Donald Trump had done — dropped any pretence of even-handedness in the matters of Palestine during his presidency. In his first term, President Trump sowed the seeds of Gaza's destructive war when he claimed that for many years, we failed to acknowledge the obvious, "the plain reality that Israel's capital is Jerusalem." He recognised Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, even recognised the annexation of Golan Heights by Israel. Then in January 2020, unveiled what he termed as 'the deal of the century' by trying to buy off the Palestinians with promises of $50 billion of investment which was never accepted by them.

Even his idea of walking out of the US-Iran nuclear deal, JCPOA, was a bad idea as that deal raised optimism of end of proxy wars in Middle East. Once the deal was off, Iran once again started uranium enrichment and UN's IAEA reported that Iran had almost enough uranium to make a nuclear bomb — the very fact that triggered insecurity and war mongering and maybe led to the brutal war in Gaza and the twelve days' war between Israel and Iran this year. President Trump's 20-point peace plan is yet another ploy and a peace plan for the people who have not been even consulted. It is only an Israeli peace thesis written by victorious Israel against the helpless Palestinian people to decide their future with its American friends.

In the last two decades what has not changed in Middle East is the role of the United States. The United States continued creating opportunities for authoritarian leaders who exploited the lives of their people. Never promised European-style welfare states, yet the United States demanded from the authoritarian leaders to keep the people away from politics till they brought in, introduced and encouraged the Middle Eastern countries to accept the ideology of Abrahimism.

Ruling regimes in many countries stayed in power not because of the consent of the people but by building ruthless police states with their intelligence agencies spying on the people. America encouraged dynastic politics as Hafez al Assad handed over presidency to his son Bashar and Hosni Mubarak and Muammar Al Gadhafi planned to do the same for their sons. Under the United States patronage, corrupt governments repressing their people in the Middle east endured. Then came the season of revolutions and it gave people hope.

In 2011, people rose up against their leaders with a determination of stopping the unpopular regimes from stealing their futures. These revolutions were driven by anger and frustration in a region where sixty percent of people were under thirty years of age. In demonstrations, people found their lost identity, honour, dignity and pride. American-supported authoritarian presidents who started as military officers fell in Tunisia, Yemen, Egypt and Libya. For once people hoped that the future will belong to political Islam. But the Muslim Brotherhood rule in Egypt proved that the Islamists could be as bad for governance as the monarchs and the generals have been previously in Middle East. It was in Middle East that the dream of revolutions in Middle East died.

Encouraged by the Americans, Abdul Fattah al-Sisi overthrew the elected Muslim Brotherhood government to become the fifth general after Naguib, Nasser, Saadat and Mubarak to become an Egyptian President. The people of Egypt will never forget the comment that President Trump made in 2017 during the G-7 Summit in France, as he waited for his meeting with President Sisi, and he said, "where is my favourite dictator."

Through the authoritarian leaders the Americans always sought not to allow democracies in Middle East ever to break their militaries' hold on power, politics and economy. That has been the American method, and it finds it hard to break away from such a scheme that helps it secure American interests. No matter how ruthless, impulsive and ready to crush opposition these dictators are, they are acceptable to America as long as they help it control American interests.

The future of Middle East is the only future of any region that is predictable. Grievances that drove millions of people out on the streets in 2011 not only exist but may have further increased. People still witness death and destruction and live with unsatisfied needs which makes an ideal situation for them to challenge their leaders again. No reconstruction can progress without political stability first and there seem to be little reason to believe that it can come by.

'Meddling America' doesn't stop; it continues with its unwanted political and military interferences, sales of arms, military support of Israel and encouragement of Middle Eastern dictators that do the American bidding. There are regimes that believe in crushing opposition, killing and imprisoning people and there are plenty of guns and jobless and frustrated people who are ready to pull the triggers. Top it with the absence of laws and courts to dispense and enforce justice, Middle East remains on the brink of continuous violence, civil wars and a next war which remains inevitable.