Broken windows effect

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The writer is a retired Lieutenant General and the President of IPRI.

I am sure readers are well conversant with the February 1969 'Time Magazine' study undertaken by Stanford psychologist Philip Zimbardo where he left two identical cars in two very different neighbourhoods; one in the high-crime Bronx, New York, and the other in affluent Palo Alto, California.

Predictably, the Bronx car was vandalised almost immediately, while the Palo Alto car sat untouched for days. After a week, Zimbardo himself smashed part of the untouched car with a sledgehammer. Within hours, the previously safe neighbourhood turned into Bronx. By evening, the car was overturned; by the next morning, it had been stripped bare.

Building on this, criminologist James Q Wilson and George Kelling came up with 'Broken Windows Theory' in 1982. They argued that visible signs of disorder create more disorder and small, unchecked crimes lead to bigger ones. In 1994, NYC Police Commissioner William Bratton then used these findings to create a new policing strategy. His team cracked down on small offenses: graffiti, turnstile jumping, public drinking; serious crimes dropped 37% in just three years.

Some may dismiss these Western examples as irrelevant to our context. Yet our own streets, markets, mohallas, offices and roads reveal a society mired in psychological strain and simmering aggression. We have grown disturbingly comfortable living amid small violations, petty thefts, snatchings, scuffles, reckless driving and routine disorder, so long as they do not happen to us directly.

More troubling is the near total absence of consistent state presence in such matters. Is this neglect meant to preserve political "vote banks"? Is it a matter of resources? Or is it, perhaps, a quiet acknowledgment that the lives and property of ordinary citizens carry little weight?

The Broken Windows Theory offers sobering insights: First, environment shapes behaviour far more than we admit. Second, social norms collapse swiftly once breached. Third, the boundary between order and chaos is perilously thin.

Our social environment is being profoundly affected by rapid urbanisation, increasing at nearly 3% annually, one of the fastest rates in South Asia, according to the University of the Punjab study Urbanisation in Pakistan: A Governance Perspective. This alone has overstretched municipal services, weakening routine maintenance functions such as water supply systems, sanitation, solid waste management and health and hygiene related services.

Another study, Local Governments and Sustainable Urban Development highlights that weak political ownership, constant restructuring of local government systems, and the centralisation of provincial authority undermine healthy and functional urban environment development. Meanwhile, our social norms are persistently eroding and accelerating the decline of our moral fabric.

The once clear distinctions between right and wrong, and our civic obligations are steadily fading. Honesty is dismissed as naivety, decency as weakness, and discipline is rare. Our collective morality can be gauged from a recent, widely viewed television serial, "Sher". In it, the avenging protagonist orchestrates the killing of his own uncle through the same truck driver once hired to murder his father, and later has the uncle deliberately paralysed by a doctor who proudly reports that the backbone has been successfully broken. Such portrayals make vengeance appear simplified, justified and even admirable, reflecting how deeply our value system is being distorted.

Unfortunately, it is clear that we are already living in a fractured social order on the brink of outright chaos. Leadership must recognise that decay begins when no one seems to care. Citizens do not need grand gestures or political theatrics but visible commitment to basic responsibilities. Law and order cannot be restored through force alone. They require example-setting: ending preferential treatment, removing needless roadblocks that choke traffic, ensuring officials remain at their posts, and dismantling feudalistic attitudes embedded in public service. The Broken Window effect is simple: when one person breaks the rules, others follow. We must act decisively on the smallest infractions before they become far more dangerous.

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