Pakistan's stock market needs depth, not drama

Pakistan's stock market has been a study in contrasts this year: pockets of bullish enthusiasm punctuated by sharp swings that leave investors – and policymakers – uneasy. The benchmark KSE-100 index, which began 2025 on a recovery path after a turbulent 2024, has repeatedly tested new highs and then surrendered large chunks of gains within days, illustrating how sensitive the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) has become to domestic policy cues, regional geopolitics, and global risk sentiment.

On October 24, 2025, the index traded around the mid-160,000s intraday, showing ranges that investors described as "wide" and "whippy" rather than steady appreciation. Volatility has not been purely technical; it has often been triggered by identifiable events.

In April 2025, trading was halted for 45 minutes after the KSE-100 plunged more than 5% in a single session as global risk aversion spiked and regional uncertainty rose – an episode that underscored how quickly sentiment can reverse even when fundamentals appear to be stabilising.

The market's dependence on foreign portfolio flows, and its limited depth compared with larger emerging markets, means that short, concentrated flows can move prices dramatically.

Domestic macro policy has been another major driver of market moves. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP)'s easing cycle through the first half of 2025, including rate cuts totalling several hundred basis points compared with 2024 peaks, supported a recovery in interest-sensitive sectors and encouraged risk appetite among local institutional investors.

But monetary easing also raised questions about inflation and currency stability, which, in turn, prompted profit-taking when headlines suggested rising external pressures or potential reversals in policy. That tug-of-war between easing for growth and guarding against macro risks has been priced into PSX volatility.

The market's advances have been concentrated. Financials, selected energy names, and large exporters accounted for a disproportionate share of gains during rallies, while small-cap and mid-cap segments frequently lagged or underperformed during corrections. This concentration increases systemic volatility because heavy exposure to a few big names magnifies the effect of any negative news tied to those companies or sectors.

Even on days when the headline index gains, breadth often remains narrow – another red flag for investors seeking durable rallies. PSX market summaries and turnover statistics show recurrent patterns of heavy volume on a limited number of symbols.

Foreign investor behaviour has been decisive at turning points. Inflows associated with short-term hedge funds or opportunistic foreign portfolio investors have magnified rallies, but sudden stops or reversals – prompted by global events such as changes in US interest rate expectations or geopolitical flare-ups – have intensified declines.

Local institutional participation has grown but still struggles to fully offset the volatility imparted by cross-border capital. The exchange's 2025 annual report and market data highlight both increasing market capitalisation and the still-fragile composition of flows.

Liquidity dynamics add another layer to the story. While market capitalisation has expanded in the past year, turnover ratios and average daily traded value show episodes of thin liquidity, especially outside the top 20 stocks.

Thin trading amplifies price moves: modest sell orders can cascade if buyers are scarce. Recent intraday ranges – sometimes exceeding several thousand index points – reflect that liquidity mismatch. For risk managers and retail investors, that means stop-losses and margin calls can be triggered more easily now than in a deep, liquid market.

Geopolitical shocks have repeatedly convulsed the PSX. In months when regional tensions flared, the index suffered steep sell-offs and occasionally triggered cooling mechanisms or temporary halts; conversely, diplomatic breakthroughs or easing of tensions sparked quick recoveries and short squeezes.

The market's sensitivity to such events is understandable – exporters, commodity prices, and investor confidence all react to geopolitical shifts – and it has made calendar risk a permanent feature of the PSX investment playbook.

Macro data and external account developments feed into market psychology as well. Pakistan's trade deficits, remittance trends, and foreign exchange reserves are monitored closely by investors, and any sign of deteriorating external buffers tends to coincide with domestic equity sell-offs.

While policy actions – tariff adjustments, fiscal consolidation measures, or SBP interventions – may eventually stabilise macro variables, the market often reacts to the perceived probability and timing of those measures long before their economic impact is visible. Official monthly KSE indicators compiled by the SBP and PSX show how closely market moves track macro announcements.

Investor composition has evolved. Retail participation has risen alongside digital access to trading, while institutional investors – including pension funds and mutual funds – have steadily increased their presence. This democratisation brings both benefits – a broader investor base and deeper domestic pools of capital – and risks, as less-experienced retail investors can exacerbate momentum trading during both rallies and panics.

Education, stricter disclosure standards, and improved investor protection are therefore essential complements to any structural reform aimed at calming volatility.

Regulatory responses so far have been pragmatic but reactive. The PSX and the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) have used circuit breakers, trading halts, and disclosure requirements to limit disorderly moves, but long-term solutions require deeper structural changes.

These include broadening the investor base through institutional development, improving corporate governance, enhancing market infrastructure to reduce settlement and operational risk, and encouraging product innovation - such as derivatives and options - that allow for hedging of market and currency risk.

PSX's 2025 initiatives around new index products and market data aim in that direction, but their stabilising impact will accrue only over time.

Volatility on the PSX is likely to persist – at least in the near term – because the market sits at the intersection of domestic policy shifts, lingering external vulnerabilities, and an increasingly connected global capital market where sentiment moves fast. That does not mean the PSX cannot offer attractive returns. Rather, it implies that returns will be accompanied by higher realised volatility, and that success will depend on both macro stability and deepening of market structures.

Policymakers, regulators, and market participants all have a role to play: improving transparency, nurturing local institutional capacity, and upgrading infrastructure will be the difference between a market that remains chronically volatile and one that evolves into a resilient and investor-friendly marketplace.

THE WRITER IS A MEMBER OF PEC AND HOLDS A MASTER'S DEGREE IN ENGINEERING