Food prices push SPI up by 5.05% YoY

The Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) stood at 5.05% year-on-year (YoY) for the week ended October 30, 2025, mainly due to higher prices of essential food items including onions, sugar, wheat flour, and tomatoes, according to the latest data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).

The weekly indicator, which tracks short-term price movements of 51 essential commodities, also showed a 0.12% increase on a week-on-week (WoW) basis, reflecting continued pressure on household budgets amid fluctuating food supplies and seasonal market trends.

According to PBS, prices of 14 items (27.45%) increased during the week, while 10 items (19.61%) recorded a decline and 27 items (52.94%) remained unchanged.

The sharpest increases were observed in prices of onions (up 59.54%), eggs (3.24%), chicken (2.40%), garlic (1.72%), firewood (0.93%), cooking oil (five litres, 0.64%), vegetable ghee (2.5 kg, 0.40%), wheat flour (0.36%), and powdered milk (0.22%).

In contrast, major declines were recorded in tomatoes (-47.02%), pulse gram (-1.66%), pulse masoor (-1.20%), pulse moong (-0.65%), LPG (-0.60%), gur (-0.56%), potatoes (-0.23%), pulse mash (-0.14%), and Irri-6/9 rice (-0.12%).

On an annual basis, prices rose by 5.05%, with notable increases seen in ladies' sandals (55.62%), sugar (42.44%), tomatoes (31.56%), gas charges for Q1 (29.85%), onions (19.98%), wheat flour (19.23%), and gur (18.41%).

Other significant gainers included beef (13.42%), firewood (12.51%), vegetable ghee (2.5 kg, 12.34%), and vegetable ghee (1 kg, 11.41%).

Conversely, major YoY declines were noted in garlic (-30.74%), pulse gram (-29.12%), electricity charges for Q1 (-26.26%), potatoes (-20.07%), tea (Lipton, -17.93%), pulse mash (-15.87%), chicken (-15.63%), LPG (-5.93%), pulse masoor (-4.68%) and Irri-6/9 rice (-3.36%).

In its October 2025 report, JS Global projected Pakistan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) would reach 5.2% YoY, easing slightly from 5.6% in September 2025. The brokerage noted that the base effect has now faded, signalling a return to more normalised price trends.

According to the report, food inflation for October is expected to rise 4.1% YoY, largely due to higher prices of tomatoes and onions, leading to an estimated 1.3% month-on-month (MoM) increase. However, the recent decline in chicken prices provided some relief, preventing a sharper rise in food inflation.

The housing, gas, and electricity segment is projected to post a 1% MoM increase. Meanwhile, core inflation is anticipated to clock in around 7.4% YoY, reflecting persistent underlying price pressures that have averaged between 7% and 9% in recent months.

In September, core inflation remained stable, with urban core inflation at 7% and rural core inflation at 7.8%, JS Global added.