Siberian winds to intensify winter across Pakistan by late November

The National Disaster Management Authority has forecast near-normal rainfall and colder nights nationwide over the next three to four months.

Senior Disaster Risk Assessment Dr Tayyeb Shah, during a media briefing in Islamabad on Thursday, said that by the end of November, cold winds from Siberia are expected to increase the intensity of winter in northern and central parts of the country.

Temperatures in the plains and southern regions are likely to remain near normal, while northern areas will experience severe cold during December. Dr Shah said temperatures are expected to cool gradually from late November onwards when the Siberian High strengthens and brings colder air into northern and central parts of the country.

Plains and southern regions will remain relatively mild, while northern areas move into full winter conditions by December. Snowfall during this season is projected to remain slightly below normal, especially in Gilgit-Baltistan, Chitral, and upper Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. Early light snow may occur in October, with more consistent accumulation from mid-November through December, he said.

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Reduced snow cover could have long-term effects on glacier health and summer water availability in 2026. However, no major downstream water shortage is anticipated due to adequate monsoon reservoir storage.

The mountainous region in north, including Kohistan, Mansehra, Swat, Diamir, Astore, Nagar, and Neelum remains moderately vulnerable to landslides. Residual monsoon moisture, coupled with freezing and thawing cycles, could trigger localised slope failures through the season.

Infrastructure such as the Karakoram Highway and Neelum Valley Road may face occasional disruptions. The NDMA emphasised sustained monitoring and early warning along key corridors to minimise risks to communities and transport.

Southern Pakistan, particularly southwestern Balochistan and parts of Sindh, may experience mild to moderate meteorological drought conditions due to continued dryness and reliance on groundwater.

Districts such as Chagai, Nushki, Panjgur, and Gwadar are highlighted as drought hotspots. While the north remains near normal, NDMA advises proactive drought resilience planning through groundwater management and climate-smart agriculture to mitigate impacts on rural livelihoods.

Smog projection

Smog remains the most critical seasonal hazard for late 2025. From October through December, Punjab’s industrial and agricultural belt including Lahore, Faisalabad, Sheikhupura, Gujranwala, and Multan is expected to face moderate to dense smog episodes with Air Quality Index levels exceeding 400 (hazardous).

Smog formation will intensify in November and December, driven by temperature inversion, calm winds, high humidity, and pollutant build up. Urban centres in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, including Peshawar, may also witness low to moderate smog events.

Authorities urge strict enforcement of emission controls, regulation of crop residue burning, and public awareness campaigns to reduce health and transport disruptions.