Cautious optimism in Islamabad after ceasefire

ISLAMABAD:

When the defence ministers and spy chiefs of Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban regime sat across the table in Doha last week, scepticism was high about whether the Qatari-hosted talks could deliver any meaningful breakthrough.

However, with Qatari and Turkish mediation, the two sides reached a ceasefire agreement, at least for now, following several days of deadly border clashes. As both sides now prepare for the next round of discussions in Turkiye, officials in Islamabad are expressing cautious optimism.

A senior official described the understanding as a "positive step forward," while warning that it remains to be seen whether the understanding will hold beyond the initial phase.

Speaking to The Express Tribune on condition of anonymity, the official said there were "encouraging signs" following the deal brokered by Qatar and Turkey, which both sides signed in Doha last week after several days of talks.

"So far, things are looking positive. There are certain indicators that suggest the situation may gradually improve," the official said, while adding that the next round of talks in Istanbul on October 25 would be "crucial in determining the direction of this engagement."

According to him, the Doha agreement has already caused unease within the banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), with reports of "panic and confusion" surfacing among militant ranks after the Taliban's commitments to Islamabad.

"There was clear panic in the TTP camp. They fear they may lose safe havens or logistical support that they have so far enjoyed across the border," the official noted.

However, despite the initial optimism, the official warned against overconfidence, reminding that Pakistan had "been down this road before".

"The Afghan Taliban are not trustworthy. We have had numerous understandings in the past which eventually fell apart," he said.

"That is why Pakistan is keeping its expectations measured while continuing to build pressure through diplomatic and security channels."

However, despite these early signs, the official cautioned against misplaced confidence. "The Afghan Taliban are not trustworthy. We have had numerous understandings in the past, which eventually fell apart," he said. "That is why Pakistan is keeping its expectations measured while continuing to build pressure through diplomatic and security channels."

He added that Islamabad would closely monitor Kabul's implementation of the deal in the coming days, particularly its actions against TTP hideouts and the movement of militants near the border.

The Pakistan-Afghanistan talks, facilitated by Qatar and Turkey, marked the first structured engagement between the two countries since cross-border tensions sharply escalated earlier this year.

Officials said the agreement aims to create mechanisms for managing security concerns, border control, and intelligence cooperation.

While both sides have publicly reaffirmed their commitment to "mutual respect and peaceful coexistence," Pakistani officials privately remain sceptical about Kabul's willingness to curb anti-Pakistan groups operating from Afghan soil.

"We are hopeful, but we are not naive," the official said. "The coming weeks will tell whether this is the start of genuine cooperation or just another tactical pause."