Impending Pak-Afghan talks and the way forward

Regardless of the outcome of the impending Doha talks, the current state of relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan signals the onset of another prolonged and complex conflict. This situation must be assessed from four key perspectives: humanitarian, security, internal stability, and geopolitics.

Life along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border has come to a virtual standstill - for the third time this year - due to border closures stemming from rising political tensions. These shutdowns have disrupted the lives of thousands, halted commercial activity and strained cross-border relations. Each episode carries a direct human and economic cost, particularly for border communities that rely heavily on daily movement and trade.

The continued presence of terrorist groups in Afghanistan - particularly the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP ) is not just a concern for Pakistan, but for the wider region and the international community. These groups operate with relative impunity, often launching attacks across the border, triggering standoffs and military responses.

Equally concerning is the presence of non-state actors within Pakistan. Their domestic influence - combined with historic links to Afghanistan - highlights the urgent need for an approach based on rule of law. The state's renewed resolve to counter such actors is a welcome and necessary development.

For too long, extremist groups centred on Kashmir and Afghanistan have been allowed to disrupt public life. Their religio-political ideologies were weaponised, resulting in repeated crises. Groups like Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP), for example, have paralysed public life multiple times since 2017. The recent violent episode, which resulted in tragic loss of life, underlines the danger of allowing such actors to operate unchecked. The government crackdown in Muridke was not only necessary - it was overdue. Those defending the TLP should instead hold its leadership accountable for inciting violence and targeting diplomatic missions.

If this marks the beginning of a serious policy shift, it must be rooted in the principle that no individual or group should be allowed to endanger public safety or national stability.

The Geopolitical Trap

Once again, Pakistan appears to be getting drawn into the vortex of Afghan geopolitics - this time with more bitterness and public polarisation. Hatred and distrust are hardening, fueled by both mainstream and social media platforms amplifying external narratives and domestic frustrations. The long-term consequences of this dynamic could be deeply damaging to regional stability and national cohesion.

Pakistan's Options And Way Forward

The Pakistani military has demonstrated its technological and operational superiority during recent confrontations. However, history provides a sobering lesson: superior firepower does not guarantee strategic victory. NATO's failure to subdue the Taliban, despite massive technological and intelligence advantages, should not be forgotten. Even a poorly equipped force like the Afghan Taliban can cause persistent harm through asymmetric warfare, as it did for two decades.

Pakistan must adopt a long-term strategic framework rather than reacting tactically to each border provocation. Infiltration, subversion and low-intensity conflict - reminiscent of the 1970s and 1980s - must not be allowed to define current policy.

Key Principles Going Forward

No knee-jerk reactions: Minor provocations by rogue border officials or skirmishes must not result in suspending visa services or closing border crossings.

Keep borders open: Even amid political tensions, Pakistan must avoid closing the border. Such actions harden public opinion, fuel resentment and generate longlasting mistrust.

Avoid public humiliation of Afghans: Publicly mocking or taunting Afghan counterparts, particularly Pashtuns, is counterproductive. It may momentarily assert dominance, but it will only deepen resentment and hostility. Dignity and mutual respect must underpin all official engagements.

As the larger and more stable neighbour, Pakistan must maintain the moral high ground while firmly pursuing its strategic interests. Let trade continue. Let people cross borders. At the same time, non-state actors must be dealt with decisively, and national policy must be guided by law, not ideology or short-term political expediency.

Instead of weaponising vis services or trade concessions under the transit trade agreements, Pakistan must preserve the high moral ground by letting the people and goods flow across the border. The best bet is to keep all neighbours on board – regional consensus for any engagement with Afghanistan or action against TTP – because almost all are wary of terrorist groups that are using the Afghan soil.

Bottom Line

Engage with Afghanistan diplomatically and economically, but never allow extremists - whether domestic or external - to dictate the national agenda. For too long have the religio-political groups enjoyed a privileged status for multiple, shortsighted considerations. That has undermined the rule of law and exposed common citizens to intimation of all sorts. TLP tried to precisely do that and this must stop for good.