World oil supply is expected to closely match demand next year as the wider OPEC+ group increases production, an OPEC report showed on Monday, marking a change from last month's outlook, which projected a supply shortfall in 2026.
OPEC+ is adding more crude to the market after the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other allies opted to unwind some output cuts more rapidly than previously planned. The additional supply has raised concerns of a surplus and weighed on oil prices this year.
In its monthly report, OPEC said the world economy continues to show solid growth and it maintained its forecasts for global oil demand to rise by 1.3 million barrels per day this year, and by a slightly faster rate in 2026.
"The robust global economic dynamics seen in the third quarter of 2025, coupled with upward revisions to second-quarter 2025 growth in the US and Japan, as well as strong data from India and China, reinforce a stable global growth outlook," OPEC said.
OPEC's demand forecasts are at the higher end of industry estimates, as it expects a slower energy transition than other forecasters, such as the International Energy Agency. OPEC's outlook also implied a supply deficit in 2026, in contrast to the IEA and many analysts.
A large deficit gives a more comfortable backdrop for OPEC+ to proceed with its plan to pump more barrels to regain market share.
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