President Donald Trump's protectionist trade agenda has unsettled financial markets, undermined public confidence, and upended the global trading order. Domestically, his "tariffs first" policy has strained the US economy; internationally, it is drawing a sharp pushback, particularly from the Global South nations, who are calling for a return to the multilateral global trading system free from unilateral and coercive tactics.
The US government shutdown – which has extended into the third week – has suspended key releases from the Bureau of Labour Statistics, including the September jobs report, leaving analysts, business leaders, and policymakers without credible economic data. Private firms such as ADP, Challenger, and Revelio Labs have projected a loss of roughly 32,000 private sector jobs in September. Meanwhile, hiring announcements for 2025 have dropped to their lowest levels in over a decade.
This data blackout comes at a critical time, as the Federal Reserve is set to make a crucial interest rate decision later this month without its usual official metrics to guide policy. Analysts warn the combination of a volatile economic landscape and the absence of reliable official data increase the risk of policy missteps.
Consumer spending, meanwhile, is increasingly overshadowed by rising caution. While previous government shutdowns had caused limited long-term damage, economists warn that a prolonged standoff between Republicans and Democrats could deepen existing vulnerabilities in an economy already strained by policy uncertainty.
President Trump's economic strategy is increasingly unpopular with the public. A CNN-SSRS poll in April revealed that 59% of Americans believe Trump's policies have worsened the economy, up from 51% earlier in the year. Only a minority see any positive effect on inflation or personal finances.
Similarly, 69% of Americans see a US recession is at least "somewhat likely" in the next 12 months, with 32% saying it is "very likely." Only 34% express optimism about the economic outlook, while the rest remain pessimistic – or at least apprehensive. Economic strain is particularly pronounced among younger adults and people of colour, who appear comparatively more uneasy with the current trajectory.
Trump's tariff policy is also losing public support. A majority of Americans (55%) view tariffs as "bad policy," and 53% disapprove of those targeting China. Similarly, 58% believe the administration lacks a coherent trade strategy, increasing political risks as economic concerns grow. Most expect tariffs to cause harm: 72% foresee damage to the US economy, 60% to the country's global standing, and 59% to their personal finances.
While economic distress mounts at home, Trump's trade policy is threatening to unravel the post-World War II global trading order. The system built on multilateralism, shared norms, and mutual accountability is now under strain with some analysts calling it all but defunct. "The global trade order as we've known it is effectively dead," former US trade representative Michael Froman said in his stark assessment in a recent NPR interview.
For decades, global trade has rested on systemic stability and shared rules enforced through multilateral institutions like the World Trade Organisation (WTO). But now the US is increasingly seen as "playing by its own rules." Sweeping unilateral tariffs, withdrawal from trade agreements, and coerced bilateral deals are undermining the very foundation of the multilateral trading order. In Froman's view, the world is sliding into "trade disorder," where each country charts its own course – with little predictability or collective oversight.
In response to Trump's policies, many nations in the Global South are pushing for preservation of multilateralism, meaningful reform of the WTO, and resistance to protectionist overreach. At the WTO General Council meeting held on October 6-7, China's envoy Li Yongjie delivered an oblique critique of Trump's trade tactics, saying that current trade turbulence demands collective action to protect the multilateral order. China's signature initiative, "Stability, Development and Reform", advances stability as foundational, development as essential, and reform as the way forward.
Li accused the US of "weaponising" tariffs and coercive bilateral deals, disrupting supply chains and eroding WTO rules. Such "power-based" trade practices, she warned, are increasingly replacing the rules-based system once taken for granted. She proposed that member states strengthen transparency and monitoring of trade measures, renew their collective commitment to WTO principles, and take concrete steps to achieve tangible outcomes within the organisation's processes.
These proposals resonated well as the EU, Brazil, Australia, Switzerland, Pakistan, and other members rallied in support, signalling that the multilateral framework is under siege.
Taking practical steps, Chinese Premier Li Qiang announced at a recent Global Development Initiative meeting that Beijing will no longer seek new "special and differential treatment" – a concession often accorded to developing countries under WTO frameworks. Observers say this move shows China's willingness to accept a more equal footing, especially as it assumes greater responsibility in defending the rules-based system.
At its last summit in the Chinese city of Tianjin, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation issued its first formal statement in support of multilateral trade. The declaration explicitly reaffirmed WTO norms such as non-discrimination, most-favored nation, and transparency. This unified stance seeks to counterbalance protectionist currents emanating from Washington and elsewhere.
China's diplomacy has also sought solidarity with emerging economies. During talks with the EU, Chinese officials condemned US "reciprocal tariffs" as violations of WTO obligations, while committing to joint defence of multilateralism. Other Global South nations, including India, Brazil, and South Africa, have also publicly criticised unilateral tariffs as "discriminatory." These statements signal a broader consensus among developing economies that trade order must not be hijacked by powerful states.
This unified Global South response to Trump's "bullying tactics" signals a rising counterforce. Their push is not simply defensive – it is an attempt to recalibrate the global order. Whether through institutional reform at the WTO or through coalitions of the like-minded, these nations aim to anchor a more resilient, inclusive, and rules-based trade system.
However, challenges abound. The WTO is already hamstrung by dysfunctional dispute settlement mechanisms and internal rifts. Rebuilding legitimacy will require more than symbolic declarations; it requires substantive reform, credible enforcement, and renewed leadership. The question is whether the international community can coalesce behind new rules before fragmentation becomes the default.
The United States, meanwhile, finds itself increasingly isolated, with Trump's America seen more as a rule breaker than a rule maker. As protectionism and tariff brinkmanship remain Trump's core tools, the world risks drifting towards fragmentation over cooperation. The coming months and years may determine whether the 21st century is shaped by rules-based multilateralism or descends into a fractured, "every country for itself" trading order. The broader Global South's effort stands as a crucial counterpoint – a bid to salvage a system under siege.
The writer is an independent journalist with special interest in geoeconomics
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