Analysts say Trump unlikely to win Nobel Peace Prize, but who will?

When it comes to this year's Nobel Peace Prize, one thing is almost certain: United States President Donald Trump will not win, no matter how much he wants it. But who will? The Norwegian Nobel Committee in Oslo will bring the suspense to an end when it announces the winner on Friday at 11am (2pm PKT).

The backdrop is bleak: the number of armed conflicts worldwide involving at least one state has never been as high as in 2024, since Sweden's Uppsala University started its global conflict database in 1946. Trump has repeatedly said he deserves the prestigious prize for resolving "eight conflicts", but experts predict he will not be the committee's choice - at least not this year.

"No, it will not be Trump this year," Swedish professor Peter Wallensteen, an expert on international affairs, told AFP.

"But perhaps next year? By then the dust will have settled around his various initiatives, including the Gaza crisis," he added.

Numerous experts consider Trump's "peacemaker" claims to be exaggerated and express concerns over the consequences of his "America First" policies.

"Beyond trying to broker peace for Gaza, we have seen policies that actually go against the intentions and what's written in the will of [Alfred] Nobel, notably to promote international cooperation, the fraternity of nations and disarmament," said Nina Graeger, who heads the Peace Research Institute of Oslo.

For Graeger, the list of Trump's actions not aligned with the ideals of the Nobel Peace Prize is long.

Trump has withdrawn the US from international organisations and multilateral treaties, launched trade wars against allies and enemies alike, threatened to take Greenland from Denmark by force, ordered the National Guard into US cities and attacked universities' academic freedoms as well as freedom of expression.