IRSA projects 8% water shortage

The Indus River System Authority Advisory Committee (IAC) on Tuesday approved water availability for the Rabi 2025-26 season, projecting an overall system shortage of 8%, despite the country experiencing heavy floods during the current year.

The figure marks the lowest shortage in the past decade, according to officials. As a result, the anticipated provincial withdrawals were fixed at 33.814 million acre-feet (MAF) — a substantial rise compared to the 10-year average of 28.870 MAF and last year's 29.427 MAF.

The IAC met here with Irsa Chairman Sahibzada Muhammad Shabir in the chair. It was attended by Irsa members, representatives of Water Resources Ministry, Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) Punjab and Sindh irrigation departments and others.

During the session, according to a statement, the committee reviewed the performance of the Kharif 2025 season, noting with "satisfaction that actual inflows of 122.364 MAF exceeded projections by 18%, the 10-year average by 19%, and last year's inflows by 14%.

The provinces utilised 62.394 MAF of water against IAC allocations, compared to provincial indents and Irsa releases of 68.505 MAF, 78.427 MAF and 99.292 MAF, respectively, the statement said.

Following detailed discussion, the IAC finalised and unanimously approved the anticipated rim-station inflows of 22.016 MAF for Rabi 2025-26. After assessment of water availability, the committee approved an overall system shortage of 8%.

The committee, the statement continued, described the 8% system shortage as the lowest recorded in the 10 years of system operations, significantly reduced from the post-Irsa average shortage of 18%.

The anticipated provincial withdrawals were fixed at 33.814 MAF, a substantial rise compared to the 10-year average of 28.870 MAF and last year's 29.427 MAF. the Provincial allocations also showed marked increases across the board.

Punjab, which has historically maintained the highest utilisation, averaging 15.367 MAF over the past decade and 15.561 MAF last year, will now receive an allocation of 18.207 MAF, the Irsa said. Sindh follows, with a 10-year average of 11.935 MAF and last-year usage of 12.154 MAF, now set to receive 13.734 MAF.

Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P) is allocated 0.701 MAF, rising from 0.668 MAF last year and a 10-year average of 0.528 MAF. Balochistan's allocation also increased modestly from 1.044 MAF last year to 1.171 MAF, up from its decade-long average of 1.040 MAF.

Collectively, the total provincial utilisation averaged 28.870 MAF over the past decade, increasing to 29.427 MAF last year, and is projected to reach 33.814 MAF during Rabi 2025-26.

The committee attributed the lower utilisation during Kharif to a very wet monsoon season, marked by widespread rainfall and flooding—particularly across the eastern and western river systems. This abundance of water allowed Irsa to fill almost all reservoirs to maximum capacity.

By the end of September 2025, total storage stood at 13.214 MAF, equivalent to 99% of the system's maximum storage capacity, ensuring a strong starting position for the upcoming Rabi season.