When floods hit the economy

Each monsoon rains and floods displace thousands, destroy property and disrupt lives. What should be a seasonal blessing has become a recurring national disaster, affecting not only remote villages but also major urban centres. This destruction is not purely natural; it is aggravated by poor planning, fragile infrastructure and inadequate governance. Agricultural lands are submerged, livestock wiped out and livelihoods ruined, leaving losses that are rarely compensated. The tragedy lies in repetition: we face the same devastation year after year, yet fail to learn from past occurrences.

The 2025 monsoon season has once again exposed Pakistan's vulnerability to climate shocks. Despite contributing less than 1% to global CO₂ emissions, the country remains among the most severely affected by climate change.

This year's floods have devastated Punjab as well as other provinces. For the first time in history, Punjab — long considered the country's better-developed region — has suffered losses on a scale not seen before. At least 842 people have lost their lives, 1.2 million people displaced, and more than 4 million affected nationwide, with economic damages estimated at $6-10 billion. Livelihoods, food security and overall stability are under threat.

The sorrowful eyes are on Punjab, home to over 130 million people, as it experiences the most severe flooding in its history. The province produces nearly two-thirds of the country's wheat, rice, cotton and sugarcane — crops that feed millions, sustain rural incomes and drive exports. Now, supply chains are paralysed, industries undermined and markets destabilised. The rice sector alone, which earned $4.19 billion in exports in FY25, faces crippling losses.

This is not unprecedented. The 2022 floods caused $30 billion worth of economic losses and required $16.3 billion for reconstruction. A World Bank assessment found that 82% of the losses were agricultural, affecting 4.4 million acres of farmland and 800,000 livestock. Sindh bore the brunt then, accounting for nearly 70% of damage, while Balochistan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa also suffered deeply. Those floods claimed 1,700 lives, displaced 33 million people, and caused devastation worth $40 billion nationwide.

Disaster management has not delivered as much as expected. Relief camps and cash transfers usually arrive only after destruction has already taken place. Long-term solutions such as modern drainage systems, protective embankments, dams, climate-smart farming and community awareness campaigns remain largely unimplemented.

The agricultural sector, which contributes 23.5% to GDP and employs 37% of the workforce, remains the backbone of Pakistan's economy. Disruptions in this sector result in food price hikes, export declines, unemployment and industrial slowdowns. Each disaster causes deeper damage, aggravates rural poverty and unsettles urban markets.

A wiser course would be to recognise that regional diplomacy also has a role. India's unannounced water releases from upstream reservoirs exacerbate downstream flood risks. This issue must be taken to regional and global platforms by framing it as both an economic and security concern. International support, however, will only follow political stability and coherent national planning.

A cloudburst in Buner (K-P) unleashed 150 mm rain in just one hour, killing hundreds and displacing thousands. Karachi's fragile infrastructure once again collapsed under heavy rainfall, causing fatalities and widespread disruption. At the same time, rising temperatures are accelerating glacier melt, swelling rivers beyond capacity and intensifying the destructive force of the monsoon.

The 2010 floods, which displaced 8 million people, affected 20 million and submerged a fifth of the country, should have been a national turning point. Fifteen years later, the lessons remain unheeded. Pakistan must choose between neglect and responsibility. Climate-resilient infrastructure, stronger institutions, regional diplomacy and proactive policies are not an option, but a necessity.