Palestine: recognition and statehood

Justifying France's recognition of the state of Palestine, President Emmanuel Macron said: "We must do everything within our power to preserve the very possibility of two-state solution, Israel and Palestine living side by side in peace and security." Whereas, US President Donald Trump during his address before the 80th session of the UN General Assembly in New York vehemently opposed recognising the state of Palestine saying such a move would reward atrocities committed by Hamas against Israel.

So far 150 out of 193 UN members states have recognised the Palestinian state. Western countries like the UK, Canada and Australia have also followed France. Even though the US refused to grant visa to a Palestinian delegation to participate in the recent UN General Assembly session, President of Palestine Mahmoud Abbas addressed the session by video link. The growing isolation of Israel and the US on the question of recognising the Palestinian state proves that the next move will be to take stringent measures against the Jewish state by imposing sanctions.

It was in the mid-seventies when PLO was granted an observers status in the UN and since then two things have happened: one, gradual legitimacy has been accorded to the Palestinian state; and two, a majority of the UN member states had recognised Israel by mid-1990s. Yet, the two-state solution which was supported by the US particularly when the PLO and Israel signed the historic accord granting recognition to each other got jeopardised after the assassination of Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin in November 1995 by a fanatic Jew. Rabin's replacement by ultra-right Benjamin Netanyahu not only derailed the peace process but also led to the Israeli rejection of the two-state solution.

Fifty years after getting an observers status in the UN, the PLO is able to widen its legitimacy because an overwhelming majority of UN members – including all the western powers, except the US – recognise the Palestinian state. But the reality on the ground is different. Palestinian leadership is divided between PLO and Hamas. The latter had been controlling the Gaza Strip since 2006 while the former has been ruling the West Bank. Ironically, now Hamas stands devastated by the Israeli bombardment from 8 October 2023 onwards; and West Bank is literally under Israeli occupation with hundreds of Jewish settlements. The notion of autonomy for the West Bank under the Oslo Accords of September 1993 is gone and the Jewish state under Netanyahu plans to annex that Palestinian territory. Israel also has plans to oust Hamas from Gaza and displace 2 million Palestinians living there. By killing more than 65,000 Palestinians, Israel is confident that it will be physically in control of Gaza and annex it into the Jewish State, like West Bank.

The growing recognition of the Palestinian state, including by a majority of western countries, may create a sense of euphoria as regards the two-state solution, but the reality on the ground is different. In practical terms, the overwhelming recognition of the Palestinian state by UN members doesn't mean that Israel will give up. The Doha conference following the Israeli attack on Qatar and Trump's meeting with some leaders of Arab-Muslim world on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly session don't mean that a Palestinian state is in the offing. Trump's avowed support to Israel denying a two-state solution means that the US will certainly veto a resolution in the UN Security Council calling for admitting the state of Palestine. While Palestine may have a moral standing in that case, it will lack legal and legitimate status unless Washington drops its opposition to a Palestinian state.

Recognition and statehood for Palestine needs to be analysed from three angles.

First, Palestinians have suffered a lot since the UN partition plan of 1947 and the creation of Israel in 1948. The ongoing genocide of Palestinians in Gaza and their persecution in occupied West Bank has created enormous sympathy for them globally, but the bitter reality is that Arab states, like Israel, are not in favour of an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital. Had Palestinians got the backing of frontline Arab states, they would have long achieved statehood. Israel's strength, despite its smaller 10 million population and lack of geographical depth, is because of its economic, military and technological superiority over its Arab neighbours. Otherwise, why would Saudi Arabia have entered into a defence pact with Pakistan particularly when the US has basses in the Saudi Kingdom? The signing of Abraham Accord with the Jewish state by the UAE and Bahrain and the expected coming of Abraham Accord-II to include more Arab-Muslim states is no way going to help on the issue of an independent Palestinian state.

Second, the division within the Palestinians is also an obstacle to statehood. Hamas's war with Israel and the issue of hostage-taking give justification to the Jewish state to go ahead with its attack on Gaza. Hamas is also against accepting Palestinian Authority governing Gaza. That further deepens the Palestinian predicament. Recognition of the Palestinian state is one thing, but establishing it practical terms is entirely different, requiring dismantling of the Jewish settlements in occupied West Bank and withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.

Finally, for an independent Palestinian state to take shape, the UN must admit it as a full member. Merely granting recognition will not be of any use unless there is a resolution in the Security Council to admit Palestine as a state. A resolution for an independent Palestinian state can always secure majority of votes in the General Assembly, but it cannot escape being vetoed by the US. Furthermore, a state must have four components: population, government, territory and sovereignty. In the case of Palestine, government and sovereignty is missing. It is Israel that illegally occupies West Bank and control the Gaza Strip. That leaves the issue of establishing a Palestinian state in limbo.